What is a Sports Betting Strategy and Why Do You Need Them?

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, January 26, 2024

The world of sports betting can be difficult to navigate, even if you’re an avid fan of a particular discipline, team or player. This is due to the numerous variables that define different sports categories, and the sheer range of betting markets available to punters.

However, the good news is that you can use various sports betting strategies and fundamentals to minimise your risk of loss and optimise returns over time. We’ll explore these principles in the article below, while asking how even basic betting strategies can prove to be worth their weight in gold.

Getting Started – What is a Sports Betting Strategy?

In layman terms, a sports betting strategy simply describes an orderly and structured approach to gambling. This makes it easier to navigate different betting markets and account for the unpredictable nature of sporting events, either by hedging wagers and covering as many outcomes as possible or creating value with specific bet types.

This type of methodical and strategic approach may also help you to counter the house edge that’s factored into all sports betting odds. When calculating and setting prices for their betting lines, sportsbooks apply a commission, which may be referred to as either the “vigorish” or “vig” in the marketplace.

This is usually set at around 10% or 15%, while it enables them to bank a nominal profit on every wager that they take. It should also be noted that odds are set to create relatively even and managed betting volumes on both sides of a particular event or outcome, which also improves a sportsbook’s profit margins over time.

For example, let’s say that you and your friend are going to wager £11 on opposite sides of a Premier League game between Luton Town and Manchester United. This creates a total risk and outlay of £22, while a Manchester United win at 11/10 would see one bettor earn £21 in total (including their original stake).

These transactions create a profit of $1 for the bookies, and you can divide this margin by the £22 stake amount and multiply the remaining value (0.045) by 100. This creates an edge of 4.55% for the sportsbook, and it’s crucial that you keep this in mind when cultivating a viable betting strategy and understanding precisely how sports wagers work.

Of course, a Luton win is priced higher, and a victory for the Hatters increases each sportsbook’s total payout. However, it’s natural that fewer punters will wager on a Luton victory, so bookies are often capable to minimise losses in this instance. Still, a sports betting strategy takes such factors and different potential outcomes into account, helping you to optimise your chances of achieving success.

OK, So Why Should You Use a Sports Betting Strategy?

Now that you understand precisely what a betting strategy is, the question that remains is why should you use one? The truth is that there are ample reasons to wager in a planned and methodological way, especially when betting on sports events and matches that are determined by a number of different factors.

• – Account for the Unpredictable Nature of Sports: Sports games and events are disorderly, while outcomes are often decided by factors outside of the respectively quality of competing teams and players. By developing an informed and viable betting strategy, however, you can more effectively manage risk by making logical and insightful selections that takes into account the unpredictable nature of sports. This creates a competitive edge over time.
• – Assume Control of Your Bankroll: A sports betting strategy essentially enables you to assume agency over the factors that are within your control when wagering. One such factor is your bankroll, which is the means with which you wager and generate returns through sports betting. By setting aside an amount that you can comfortably afford to lose and regulating the amounts that you stake on individual outcomes, for example, you can minimise the risk of loss and amplify returns over time. We’ll touch more on bankroll management later in the guide.
• – Make the Most of the Tools at Your Disposal: You’ll have various tools at your disposal when formulating and placing sports bets, some of which may afford you a competitive advantage over sportsbooks. From datasets and analysis to weekly rankings (in competitions like the NFL) and free bet offers, these resources can help you to identify the best value odds and optimise the amount of free play on your account. This can translate into maximum returns over time, while different bet types (such as handicaps and accumulators) can also help to create value in published odds.

Basic Sports Betting Strategies – The Fundamentals

As we’ve touched on, sports betting enables you to introduce order and structure to your sports betting activity. However, there are numerous strategies that you can use to achieve such objectives, while the entire concept of strategic sports betting is underpinned by a number of fundamental principles. These include:

Understanding Bankroll Management

We’ll start with bankroll management, which refers to the amount of money that you initially set aside from the purposes of sports betting. As we’ve already discussed, gaining greater control of your bankroll is one of the main advantages of wagering strategically, especially as you should only ever bet an amount that you can comfortably afford to lose and want to make the most of this at all times.

When we talk about bankroll management, we’re referring to the precise way in which you organise your funds and wager them within a specified period of time. Most commonly, you’ll start with a reasonable amount of money that you can afford to lose within a predetermined timeframe, such a calendar month or the English Premier League season.

For example, you may decide that you’re able to comfortably wager £3,000 during the course of the next EPL season (which usually runs between August and the following May). You should divide this by the number of Premier League game weeks or matchdays (38), which in this case creates a weekly bankroll of £78.94.

From here, you can identify the matches that you want to wager on before deploying the remaining amount on the best and most profitable betting markets. For example, if you intend to target four different matches, divide your weekly bankroll by this number ($78.94 / 4) to create a budget of £19.73 per game.

Learning How to Read Odds and Identify Value in Markets

Once you’ve established your bankroll, you’ll need to ensure that this is deployed strategically across viable and well-priced markets. This requires you to read and understand odds effectively, both in terms of being able to calculate prospective returns and identifying the implied probability of specific outcomes occurring.

In the UK, the most common odds format is known as ‘fractional’. Fractional odds feature two numbers separated by a single slash, with the former telling you how much you can potentially win in relation to your second (which represents your initial stake). The term ‘odds-on’ describes a short-price favourite where the potential multiplier is lower than the stake value (such as 1/5).

For example, let’s say that you wanted to back PSG to win the 2023/24 Champions League at a price of 9/1. In this case, you stand to win £9 for every £1 that you successfully stake (exclusive of your initial bet), so a £10 wager will see you bank a £90 return and £100 in total if the Parisians go on to win the competition for the first time.

When it comes to implied probability, there’s also an equation that you can use specifically in relation to fractional odds. You can apply this to every single betting line and outcome that you consider wagering on, in order to determine your chances of winning and the optima amount to risk in pursuit of a return. The formula reads as follows:

denominator / (denominator + numerator) * 100 = implied probability

So, when betting on PSG to win the Champions League, the calculation would read as ‘1 / (1+9) * 100 = 10.00%’. So, odds of 9/1 imply that PSG have a nominal 10% probability of winning the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League, whereas favourites Manchester City (who are priced at around 6/4) have a 40% chance of defending their crown. This knowledge enables you to calculate your chances of winning and set your stake accordingly.

Recognising the Importance of Early Betting on Favourites in Outright Markets

When betting on outright markets such as the winner of the 2023/24 UCL, one of the best strategies is to wager as early as possible. The reason for this is simple; as outright or futures odds tend to be relatively long and offer superior value, depending on the size of the competing field and number of likely or heavily backed winners.

The odds are usually at their longest when they’re first released, before they change in relation to factors such as injury news, pre-season form or performances and the flow of public money within a particular market. When it comes to the latter, fancied or heavily backed teams will see their prices shorten as the event draws closer, so early betting can be particularly important in this instance.

Conversely, the price of less fancied teams and competitors tend to ‘drift’ over time. This means that their odds will lengthen as the event draws closer, creating more value in instances where you wager a little later. So, while early and proactive betting is recommended when backing outright favourites, you should wait a little longer when wagering on outside picks.

Use Handicaps and Accumulators – But Do So Sparingly

Betting on short price favourites is always a viable betting strategy. However, the issue with this is that it unlocks minimal value and only nominal returns, except in instances where you’re able to wager highly significant amounts of cash. However, you can create value in some instances by introducing specific wager types. These include:

• – Handicap Bets: With so-called “handicapping”, you’re attributing a specified points or goals disadvantage to a betting favourite. For example, Manchester City may be priced at 2/11 to beat Brentford in the EPL, but backing them to win with a handicap of -2.5 goals can unlock far superior odds of 4/3. However, City need to prevail by three clear goals for this wager to be successful, so there’s a need to use this type of bet sparingly and in instances where there’s a significant difference in quality between two competitors.
• – Accumulator Bets: Accumulators are wager types that include anywhere between two and 20 selections in a single bet. With an accumulator, for example, you could back the winner of six specific winners in a particular Premier League game week, with the odds of each pick multiplied together to create a single, extended price. With an accumulator, you should focus on selecting short price favourites where possible, as this optimises your chances of winning while also ensuring you can bank a viable return.

Embracing Data Analysis and Information

Perhaps the most straightforward principle of any betting strategy is the importance of data analysis. Make no mistake; form and performance statistics (both team and individual) can be highly insightful when betting on sports, with the key being to identify the most relevant datasets in real-time.

One of the most important data metrics is home form. After all, home field advantage is key determining factor in all team sports, although the edge afforded to the home side varies from one discipline to another. For example, home teams win 69.1% of Major League Soccer (MLS) games, while this percentage drops to 62.7% in the NBA and 60.1% in the NHL.

In sports like the NFL, you can also use weekly ranking data to analysis different form stats, including each team’s performance against the spread (ATS) and how they’re faring in relation to the handicaps or point spreads set by different sportsbooks. You can use selected snippets of information to inform your matchday picks, winners and bet types.

Alternative datasets may be more relevant in different sports, so it’s important to bet with knowledge of individual disciplines and the competing teams or players. Ultimately, data should play a critical role in any sports betting strategy that you deploy, especially if you’re going to optimise your chances of winning over time.