Betting on Premier League Matches in 2024/25 – A Complete Guide

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, July 19, 2024

The English Premier League has made a long-awaited return, after the Three Lion’s thrilling run to the final of Euro 2024. Manchester United’s home clash with Fulham kicked off the 2024/25 campaign, which just happens to be the 33rd in the history of the competition and since the breakaway league was formed.

A total of 380 matches will be played during the 2024/25 season, as Manchester City go in search of a fifth successive title. In this comprehensive betting guide, we’ll look at some of the key match betting markets, while asking how you can make the most of your Premier League bankroll.

The Premier League Betting Odds for 2024/25

Before we take a closer look at EPL match betting, it’s important to look at the outright odds across a number of Premier League markets. After all, this unlocks significant value and enhanced prices, whether you want to pick the league winner, teams to finish in the top four or those that will ultimately be relegated. Here are some of the key outright betting insights!

There’s Value in the Top Four Betting Market

Picking teams to place in the top four of the EPL always offers value, due to the sheer number of teams that have a realistic chance of achieving this objective. The 2024/25 odds that suggest Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool are heavily favoured to finish in the top four, but no other teams are odds-on in this particular market.

Manchester United offer especially good value here, at an average price of 21/10. Retaining Erik ten Hag (who has won trophies in consecutive seasons with the club) could turn out to be shrewd business, especially if the Red Devils can keep their key players fit and Marcus Rashford can return to his best form.

If you’re interested in a genuine outside bet, West Ham could be worth consideration. They’re priced at 16/1, and while these odds imply a 5.88% probability of the Hammers finishing fourth or better, they’ve done exceptional business in the transfer market. The loan signing of Jean-Clair Todibo from Nice is particularly impressive, and he’ll partner the cultured Max Kilman in a new look defensive line.

Man City Face an Uncertain Season

You’ll notice that Man City are only 1/16 to finish in the top half this season, compared to 1/66 for Arsenal and Liverpool. So, while the Citizens remain the 6/4 favourites to win an unprecedented fifth successive title, their wide selection of outright odds are being impacted by an upcoming hearing over 115 financial mismanagement charges.

So, they may not offer particularly value in any outright market, from winning the league and securing a top-two finish to booking a spot in the following season’s Champions League. Instead, consider backing Arsenal to prevail at a current price of around 19/10, while also considering Arne Slot’s Liverpool at tempting odds of 7/1.

You could back these teams to win the league in the ‘Without Man City’ betting market, which removes the Citizens from contention completely. So, although this unlocks slightly lower prices for Arsenal and the Reds to win the league, it also increases your chances of winning markedly.

Back Nottingham Forest to be Relegated

Leicester City, Ipswich and Southampton gained promotion to the EPL last season, with the Foxes and the Saints having spent just a single campaign outside of the top flight. However, these sides are the three favourites to make a swift return to the Championship, although this is relatively normal at the start of Premier League campaigns.

However, other sides are also in contention to lose their top flight status in 2024/25. Take Everton, for example, who started their campaign with a 3-0 home defeat against Brighton and have flirted with relegation for the previous two seasons. They continue to struggle for firepower and a proven, clinical number nine.

However, Nottingham Forest may be in even graver danger of retaining their top flight status. After all, the team failed to really kick on following the appointment of Nuno Espírito Santo last season, with the Portuguese having won just seven of his 27 matches (25.93%) of his matches at the City Ground.

They also lost the services of both Orel Mangala and Moussa Niakhaté during the summer, with this pair joining Ligue 1 side Lyon in a combined €47 million deal. This move has weakened their defence and midfield, so there may be value in picking Forest for the drop, especially at an average price of 11/4 at the time of writing.

The Best and Most Popular Premier League Match Betting Markets

Now that we’ve explored the wider EPL outrights and betting markets, it’s time to get into the nuances provided by match betting. This remains the single most popular way of wagering on the English Premier League, with a total of 380 matches set to be contested between August and the end of May.

Of course, there’s a huge array of match betting markets available to bettors, some of which may be more popular or better known than others. So, let’s take a closer look at the leading match betting markets and precisely how they work!

Win or 1×2 Betting

We’ll start with the 1×2 or win market, which simply requires you to pick the winner of a particular match. This market is complicated slightly in the sport of football due to the prevalence of the draw, which occurs in 27.52% of EPL games on average. However, it can unlock relatively competitive odds and offer immense opportunity for seasoned punters.

When you compare published 1×2 markets, it’s important to calculate the implied probability of each potential outcome. For example, if you want to back Man City to beat Chelsea in the EPL at odds of 1.91, this implies a 52.4% probability of the Citizens achieving this goal. Conversely, the Blues can be backed at around 3.90, implying a 25.6% probability of Chelsea winning. The draw is priced a 3.75, so there’s a 26.7% chance of the match ending tied.

These implied probability values equal 104.70% in total, which may be indicative of a so-called “value bet”. This means that the published odds may not be truly reflective of the actual probability values. For example, City’s form and pedigree means that their price is arguably a little long, so you may be encouraged to back them with a slightly larger unit bet.

By identifying matches of this type and potential value bets, you can successfully leverage 1×2 markets and earn incremental profits over the course of the season. Just remember: detailed analysis is key here, as it helps you to discover the most lucrative win markets.

Handicapping or Spread Betting

Often, it can be hard to identify high value match bets, especially in keenly contested competitions such as the English Premier League. In this case, you may need to create value in match betting, and there are several markets that you can leverage to achieve this.

One of the best examples is handicapping. Also referred to as spread betting in some countries, this requires you to apply a theoretical goals handicap one team against another, usually a heavy betting favourite. For example, you may decide to back City to defeat Chelsea with a handicap of -1.5 goals, typically at enhanced betting odds.

The odds will lengthen in line with your choice of handicap and betting line. For this particularly wager to be successful, your chosen team must ‘beat the spread’ and overcome the established handicap during 90 minutes. In the example above, Man City would have to win by two clear goals for the bet to be successful.

Alternatively, you can apply a virtual advantage to a betting underdog. For example, you may back Chelsea to win with a positive handicap of +1.5 goals, and in this instance, the Blues will either need to win or lose by just a single goal for your wager to come in. Once again, this market requires detailed analysis and an understanding of the historic head-to-head between competing teams.

Over/Under Betting

Another popular match betting market (and example of an even money market) is the over/under on how many goals will be scored during 90 minutes. In this market, sportsbooks will set specific totals as individual betting lines, and you’ll have to select one before deciding whether the actual number of goals will be over or under this threshold.

Typically, 2.5 goals is the most popular betting line in this market, as around 2.65 goals have been scored per 90 minutes since the inception of the Premier League. However, the 2023/24 campaign saw an impressive 1,246 goals scored in 380 matches, at the much higher rate of 3.28 per 90. So, there’s also potential in betting around the 3.5 goals line, although this should be done a little more sparingly.

The use of half points here ensures that there are only two potential outcomes. If you back under 2.5 goals being scored in a specific game, for example, your wager will be successful if a total of two goals (or fewer) is scored. Conversely, you’ll lose your stake amount if the game produces three or more goals during the 90 minutes.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) or Not

This is another example of an even money match betting market, and one that asks you to speculate on whether both teams will score (or not) during a specific game. This is available across all 380 Premier League games in 2024/25, while it also unlocks highly competitive odds and appealing implied probability values.

The key here is to engage in targeted team and statistical analysis. You can access stats on each teams attacking and defensive performances, while also seeing the percentage of matches in which both competing sides have found the net. You should also distinguish between home and away form and performance metrics, as these may differ markedly and impact your final selections.

This is most widely deployed as a pre-game betting market, while it may also be combined with similar wagering lines as part of a combination bet. For example, your overall analysis may encourage you to back Man City to beat Chelsea and both teams to score during the 90 minutes, creating a combination wager that unlocks significantly higher odds.

However, you’re chances of winning here also diminish with every betting line that you add, so it’s important to tread the fine line between risk and reward here!