Explored – The Sports Betting Strategies to Suit You

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, July 12, 2024

We’ve recently written extensively about common sports betting strategies, many of which are built on principles such as value betting, backing and laying. Broadly speaking, these strategies enable you to wager in a more structured and informed way, which exploring some of the core concepts that underpin sports betting.

However, there are also more specific and detailed betting strategies that can be used when wagering on sports. What’s more, there are options to suit specific levels of skill and experience, meaning that anyone can profit as a sports betting enthusiast. But what are the best examples, and how can you formulate strategies when betting on specific sports?

Sports Betting Strategies for Different Experience Levels

Let’s start by addressing some of the best and most popular sports strategies. Each of these varies in nature and introduces different levels of risk, but the good news is that there are options to suit players regardless of their experience, knowledge base or understanding. Here are four such strategies and a look at who they’re most suitable for!

For Beginners – Flat Betting

If you’re going to wager as a beginner (or someone with a nominal bankroll), adopting a simple and manageable betting strategy is key. Perhaps the best option in this respect is so-called “flat betting”, which requires you to set a nominal unit bet and never once deviate from this.

So, whether you were backing a 1.40 betting favourite or wagering on an 8.00 outsider, you’d wager the same exact amount. Obviously, this strategy will have a direct and significant impact on your returns. For example, successfully backing a 1.40-shot to prevail with a flat £10 stake will see you bank £14 in total.

Conversely, the same £10 unit bet would yield £80 if you successfully back the 8.00 pick, with this sum inclusive of your initial stake and total profit.

This is an obvious downside, as is the fact that a flat betting strategy is restrictive and does not enable you to tailor your stake according to key market factors. From a beginner’s perspective, however, it makes bankroll management considerably easier from the outset, while providing a foundation from which your strategy can evolve in line with knowledge and experience.

Remember, the primary objective here is to maintain a consistent unit bet value that minimises your exposure to risk and financial loss over time. We’d also recommend setting a nominal unit bet initially, as this also enables you to wager responsibly as you learn the ropes.

For Developing and Evolving Bettors – Percentage Betting

As you begin to see your bankroll fluctuate (and hopefully grow) over time, you may want to consider embracing a percentage betting strategy. Although this is broadly similar to a flat betting model, it automatically adjusts your actual unit bet value according to the size of your real-time bankroll.

More specifically, this strategy requires you to wager a fixed percentage of your bankroll every time you bet. For example, let’s say that you’ve accumulated a bankroll of £1000 midway through the 2024/25 Premier League campaign. You have set a unit bet percentage of 2.5%, so you’re next stake amount will total £25.

This is staked at odds of 2.00, and if your pick is successful, your bankroll will immediately increase to £1050. A quick calculation will reveal that 2.5% of this total sum is £26.50, so you’ll risk a little more in the pursuit of a return the next time you wager. This enables you to leverage winning bets and scale your stake amount every time you win, while maintaining a simple model and percentage value that doesn’t deviate.

This is highly recommended as a transitional betting strategy, as you continue to gain experience of specific markets and strive to maximise profitability. However, it’s also relatively inflexible, while it doesn’t enable you to factor in other considerations such as odds or implied probability values.

For the Intermediate Bettor – Introducing Confidence Models

If you’re an intermediate bettor with a relatively generous bankroll, you’ll want to develop a wagering strategy that takes into account a broader range of considerations. This is where so-called “confidence models” come into play, with these entities allowing you to adjust your unit bet based on your analysis of specific markets and subsequent insights.

Of course, the word ‘confidence’ seems misplaced here, especially given the wildly unpredictable nature of sporting events and the diverse range of variables that impact outcomes. However, it is possible to analyse various datasets and predict outcomes more effectively, while also identifying value bets with highly competitive odds.

For example, let’s say that you wanted to bet on Aston Villa to defeat Arsenal in the English Premier League. In this case, the home team Villa are priced at 4.20 to prevail, implying just a 23.80% probability of this outcome occurring. Conversely, Arsenal’s price of 1.91 makes them the favourites in the win market, suggesting that they have a 52.35% of triumphing on the road.

However, your analysis shows that Villa won 40 of the 57 points available to them at home in 2023/24, while their 12 victories at Villa Park include a disciplined and deserved 1-0 win over Arsenal. The Gunners are also without several key players through injury and suspension, so the pre-match odds may not be reflective of the actual implied probability values.

In this case, you may have far greater confidence in an Aston Villa win, encouraging you to back the home team. This may also impact your unit bet value, as you’re prepared to wager slightly more in the pursuit of a higher profit. In fact, you could multiply your starting unit bet by two or three units, as you look to strike the optimal balance between risk and reward.

The real key here is to identify the most important datasets and performance metrics. Well, the home and away form of competing teams is particularly important in sports like football, while it should be noted that some 46.2% of Premier League matches are won by teams with a home field advantage. Analysing real-time injury and suspension news is key too, as is developing an understanding of individual player form and performances.

For Advanced Bettors – Understanding the Kelly Criterion Model

Once you’ve become a seasoned and experienced sports bettor, you can begin to consider adopting a more advanced strategy. One of the most popular (albeit complex) systems is the ‘Kelly Criterion Model’, which has been deployed as both a sports betting strategy and a method for structuring financial trades.

In simple terms, the model is mathematical in nature and used to determine the optimal stake (or investment) amount for each individual bet or trade. As you can image, there’s even a formula that underpins the Kelly Criterion Model, which reads as follows:

F = (BP – Q) / B

There are four different values included in this equation, each of which plays a key role in your individual calculations. But what does each value mean in practical terms? Here’s a summary in relation to sports betting:

• F = The unit bet size expressed as a percentage of your starting bankroll
• B = The wager’s odds in decimal format (-1)
• P = The implied probability of your bet being successful
• Q = The probability of your bet losing, which can also be calculated using odds. This is typically expressed as 1 – ‘P’.

To understand this further, let’s use the example of betting on an EPL match between Brighton and Manchester United at the AMEX Stadium. The Seagulls can be backed at odds of 1.82, implying a 55% probability of them winning on the South Coast. Subsequently, the odds imply a 45% of your wager being unsuccessful, whether the match results in a win for Man United or a draw after 90 minutes. In this case, the formula will read as follows:

0.0012 = (0.82*0.55 – 0.45) / 0.82

You can them multiply 0.0012 by a value of 100, creating a sum of 0.12% of your bankroll. This means that you should wager just a nominal unit bet value on this outcome, or potentially consider exploring an alternative market. Just remember to base your final stake on additional analysis, which may help you to calculate more accurate implied probability values.

Betting on Specific Sports – How to Maximise Your Returns

As you can see, each of these betting systems are different, so bettors of different skillsets and experience can select the optimal model for them. They can also transition from one strategy to another while even combining different entities in some instances. It’s possible to cultivate more specific strategies for specific sports too, but what are some good examples of this?

• Football Betting: We’ve already spoken about home field advantage, which is particularly prevalent in the sport of football. This ranges from 46.2% in the EPL to a staggering 69.1% in North America’s MLS, so you should definitely favour home teams when making betting selections. You could also leverage handicapping and even money markets such as BTTS to create additional value when football betting, while embracing confidence models to reflect your analysis.
• Basketball and NBA Betting: Like football, you can also access detailed datasets and insights when wagering on basketball and NBA matches. So, advanced betting strategies can also be confidently deployed here, while wagering against the public is a viable model here too. This also reflects the emotive nature of NBA betting (as punters often back their favourite teams to win), while it’s easy to monitor wagering lines in real-time and wager directly against the spread (ATS).
• American Football and NFL Betting: NFL bettors often use a broad array of datasets, allowing for informed selections and advanced betting strategies like the Kelly Criterion Model. Such resources include weekly rankings, which are based on how teams have performed when covering the average spread set by bookmakers. This also makes point spread betting and handicapping viable here, especially when you decide to wager against the spread based on your specific insights.
• Baseball and MLB Betting: In the case of baseball, there’s obviously less event and market coverage, so you may prefer to more conservative betting strategy here. However, over/under betting remains incredibly popular on LMB games, especially in relation to contests where there are noticeably high wagering lines (such as +7.5 runs or above). Games of this type also tend to favour the betting underdog, creating higher value bets such as moneylines.
• Hockey and NHL Betting: In the NHL (which dominates hockey betting volumes across the globe), just 59% of contested matches are won by the home team. So, games here are incredibly competitive, which should encourage you to adopt a conservative betting strategy such as flat or percentage wagering. We’d also recommend ‘hedging’ bets when wagering on the NHL, especially if you have access to free bets that allow to cover all match outcomes and guarantee at least a nominal profit.
• Golf Betting: Golf is the first individual sport on this, and it’s relatively unique from a betting experience. However, one viable betting strategy is to analyse historic player form and their individual styles, before determining how they’re likely to fare at specific courses. This should lead to more informed betting picks. Also, be sure to bet early in outright markets, especially those pertaining to major tournaments such as The Masters. This type of event features a huge number of players and potential winners that unlock highly competitive odds. Try to deploy the Kelly Criterion of Confidence Model here to reflect the unique range of factors that can impact golfing outcomes!

So, there you have it: our comprehensive guide to different sports betting strategies and how you can wager successfully on individual sports. Hopefully, this advice will help you to make the most of your bankroll and minimise your exposure to loss in every conceivable sports betting market!