What are the Most Effective Sports Betting Strategies?
Posted by Harry Kane on Tuesday, April 30, 2024
We’ve written recently about the importance of strategy in sports betting, and how this can help to simultaneously mitigate loss and boost returns. This is especially relevant in popular sports such as football, where some 76.8% of fans are thought to regularly wager on the action as it unfolds.
Football is second only to horse racing when it comes to wagering, and fans who operate with a strategic mindset are more likely to achieve better results over time. Choosing the right strategy is easier said than done, however, so here’s a comprehensive guide to the best football betting systems and their precise advantages!
Back and Lay Betting Online
We’ll start with one of the most popular betting strategies, with the bet and lay technique synonymous with minimising risk and seeking out value in the marketplace. This is synonymous with matched betting, which is a specific strategy that enables you to cover all potential match outcomes and guarantee a nominal profit on your stake.
In simple terms, ‘backing’ a bet refers to a standard online wager. So, if you were to bet that Manchester United were to defeat Fulham in their 2024/25 Premier League opener, you’d be backing the former to win as a single outcome wager. This is the most common form of sports betting in the UK.
‘Laying’ a bet is typically what bookmakers do. If we take the same wager as an example, a sportsbook will effectively lay the bet of Manchester United winning, which means that all other outcomes will deliver a win for the operator. In short, laying a bet means wagering on something not to happen, which is completely at odds with the traditional sports selection.
So, how do you deploy a back and lay wager? In truth, there are several ways to accomplish this, such as laying the draw on an exchange at odds of 3.50. Then, if the Red Devils takes the lead in the first half of the aforementioned contest, you can cash out to claim a profit. However, you’ll need to watch the game if you’re to successfully implement this type of strategy.
Another, and arguably more popular option, is to hedge your bet by backing the draw. So, after the first goal goes in, the odds for the draw are likely to rise, which means that backing this price with an amount that covers your liability will deliver a guaranteed, albeit modest, profit. Ultimately, this strategy is all about managing risk in real-time and optimising value, as you look to seek out longer odds that can deliver the best possible returns.
Value Betting
Next, we’re going to discuss value betting. This is particularly popular in football and ideal for fans who boast superior knowledge and experience of wagering markets. This is because a value bet encourages you to identify outcomes that may be overpriced, as bookmakers have underestimated the probability of a particular outcome occurring.
Let’s say that you wanted to back Bournemouth to win away at Nottingham Forest in their Premier League opener, for example. You can back this outcome at a competitive price of 2.63, which overlooks the Cherries’ form towards the end of last season and the continued impact of Spanish manager Andoni Iraola.
These odds imply just a 38.02% probability of a win for the Cherries. However, if your own analysis of the team’s form (both overall and on the road), suggests that Bournemouth have a much higher chance of winning, you can stake money on this outcome and move before their price starts to shorten.
To successfully implement your strategy, there’s also a simple mathematical approach that you can follow. This requires you to multiply the published odds by an outcome’s implied percentage probability, before dividing this by 100. If the value produced is greater than 1.00, the betting line offers significant value that may boost both your chances of winning and potential returns.
Ultimately, you’ll need to be a confident and experienced bettor to place successful value bets, but there’s no doubt that this is an excellent way of beating the bookmakers and earning incremental gains over time. It’s also something that’s based on mathematics and implied probability, which can be learned over time.
Handicapping and Spread Betting
We’ll close with handicap betting, which refers to a scenario where certain teams are handicapped by a predetermined number of goals for the purpose of a specific wager. However, your pick will have to win by a specific margin (or ‘beat the spread’) if your wager is to be successful, creating enhanced odds but an incrementally higher risk of loss.
For example, let’s look at the scheduled Premier League clash between Arsenal and Wolves at the Emirates Stadium. Here, the Gunners are the heavy betting favourites and priced at 1.25 to defeat their opponents outright. However, if you apply a handicap of -1.5 goals that compels them to win by two goals or more, you can unlock odds of 1.70 without overly compromising your chances of winning.
Of course, you can increase your handicap further if you think that Arsenal will win more convincingly. However, although this will enhance your odds further, it may also increase the risk of loss significantly. So, be sure to impose a balanced and informed handicap based on your analysis of the competing teams and their respective home and away form.
There are some key tips when engaging in handicap betting. Firstly, it’s important to target matches with a clear betting favourite, as this maximises your chances of winning with each individual wager. Remember, you can also apply a positive handicap (such as +1.5 goals) to the underdog, which in this case, means that Wolves would simply have to win, draw or lose by just a single goal for the wager to be successful.
Also, you can occasionally access handicap values such as –1.25 or 1.75 goals. These quarter points may offer slightly enhanced prices, despite the fact that they won’t impact the outcome of the handicap at all. Leveraging such betting lines can introduce enhanced value and incrementally higher returns.