The Qatar World Cup – Our Betting Guide
Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, April 8, 2022
This year will see something of a first for the FIFA World Cup, with the Qatar tournament taking place during the winter due to the high temperatures in the Middle East. With qualification now complete, the world’s 32 best sides are preparing to participate in Qatar, including leading sportsbook favourites like France and Brazil and the host themselves (who will be making their WC debut). In this post, we’ll provide a comprehensive guide of the participants and best betting markets, while offering some tips on how to leverage these to your advantage.
Which Side Offer the Best Value to Bettors?
The Middle East will provide hot and humid conditions for teams, particularly during the early and late afternoon kick-offs (which are scheduled for 1pm and 4pm local time throughout the group stages). This at least partially explains why South American giants Brazil are the early favourites to prevail in Qatar, as Seleção go in search of a record-extending sixth tournament win.
In fact, the team can be backed to win at an average price of 9/2, just ahead of defending champions France (6/1). England can also be backed at similar ante-post odds of 13/2 to win the tournament outright, but it’s fair to say that none of these options are immediately appealing. However, there are some options that are arguably more competitively priced, including the following:
1. Argentina – 8/1
The Argentines are as long as 8/1 to win with some bookies, despite the side being in the midst of an unbeaten run that has spanned 33 matches. The team thumped Estonia 5-0 in a friendly match in their last outing, while the previous match saw the side beat defending champions Italy 3-0 in a one-off match that’s known colloquially as the “Finalissima”.
This match is so-called as it pits the previous European Championship winners against the Copa America champions, with Argentina’s outstanding performance (and the superb link-up play between Lautaro Martinez and the talismanic Lionel Messi) distinguishing the team’s credentials ahead of the WC.
Argentina will also embrace the sweltering and humid conditions in Qatar, affording them a further advantage as they look to claim their first World Cup since a Diego Maradona-inspired team prevailed way back in 1986. The nation also boasts a deep squad that melds discipline and work-ethic with sublime skill, while they offer exceptional value in the real-time marketplace.
2. Spain – 15/2
Luis Enrique has quietly managed to build a youthful and impressive Spanish squad in recent years, while losing just five international matches out of 40 during his two stints in charge. He maintained a 75%-win percentage during his initial tenure between July 2018 and March 2019, while he has since won 17 matches and drawn 12 out of 32 since 19th November 2019.
During this time, he has built a balanced and resilient squad that perfectly melds youth and experience, with precocious stars like Pedri and Gavi supported by international stalwarts such as Dani Carvajal, Pablo Sarabia and skipper Sergio Busquets.
This Spanish squad has also enjoyed a relatively prosperous two years, reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2020 (there were defeated on penalties after dominating much of the 120 minutes played). Then came a smooth qualification process to the Qatar World Cup, with Spain losing just once in UEFA qualification Group B and finishing in first place (by four points) ahead of Sweden.
Interestingly, the Swedes were the only team to beat Spain through qualifying, but Enrique’s men won six of their remaining seven matches while conceding only five goals across eight qualification matches.
Ultimately, Spain will be highly competitive and difficult to beat in Qatar, with their strength in depth and incredible level of technical ability tailormade for the difficult conditions in the Middle East. So, an average price of 15/2 for the Spanish to win offers exceptional value, while these odds are also likely to shorten in the coming weeks and as the tournament draws closer.
3. The Netherlands – 12/1
We’ll close with the Netherlands, who also qualified well for Qatar having participated in a much more challenging group featuring Turkey and Norway. Remember, Louis Van Gaal’s Dutch side opened qualifying with a 4-2 thumping in Turkey, while Norway’s talismanic striker Erling Haaland was one of the top scorers through qualifying and posed a huge threat to Holland’s defence.
However, the Dutch avenged their loss in Istanbul with a 6-1 thrashing of Turkey in the return fixture in Amsterdam, while a controlled 2-0 victory against Norway in Rotterdam during the final round of qualification matches secured the side’s place in Qatar.
The team is also unbeaten in 10 matches since the beginning of October 2021, while their most recent form in the UEFA Nations League has been particularly impressive. More specifically, the Netherlands beat an exceptional Belgian team 4-1 in Brussels, before recording two victories against Wales in Cardiff and Rotterdam respectively.
Of course, a 2-2 draw at home to Poland highlighted the defensive frailties that sometimes undermine the Dutch, and Virgil Van Dijk will need to rediscover his best form if they’re to prosper in the Middle East.
Still, the fact remains that Holland boast the firepower and midfield quality to beat any side on their day, and the smart money is on the team progressing deep into the tournament as they go in search of their first ever World Cup win.
The Best World Cup Betting Markets
At this stage, we’re going to appraise some of the tournament’s key betting markets and what makes them so popular among punters. These include:
#1. The Tournament Winner
As we’ve already touched on, the ante-post odds for the outright 2022 World Cup winner have been published by most leading sportsbooks across the globe. The reason for this is simple; as this remains the single most popular ante-post betting market available to punters, while it’s also one of the easiest to access and understand.
The current odds make Brazil and France obvious favourites, with the former expected to embrace the hot and humid conditions in Qatar and the latter looking to defend the title that they won in Russia last time out. We’ve also listed three of the other contenders with slightly longer prices and that offer increased value to bettors, and it’s important to compare the market and real-time odds before placing your wagers.
#2. The Top Goalscorer
The World Cup also offers access to a wealth of individual player markets, the most popular of which enables you to predict the identity of the tournament’s leading goalscorer. Make no mistake; the World Cup Golden Boot is one of football’s most coveted individual prizes and keenly contested by the competing players. This is also a market that’s wide open and tends to offer excellent value, with current favourites Harry Kane and France’s Kylian Mbappe priced as long as 7/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Even more value can be found further down the list, with Karim Benzema priced as long as 12/1 (despite the forward enjoying the most prolific season of his career in 2021/22) and Brazil’s talismanic forward Neymar available at 16/1. Sure, there’s a delicate balance to strike between risk and reward with top goalscorer betting, but it’s a tempting marketplace that offers access to potential sizable returns on a relatively small stake.
#3. Individual Match Betting
During the group stages alone in Qatar, 48 matches will be contested by the 32 competing sides. This creates numerous opportunities to wager on the outcome of individual matches, with four played each day until the knockout phase commences. You can wager on the outcome of every one of these matches through your chosen, licensed sportsbook, whether you place ante-post bets ahead of time or engage in in-play betting that also offers access to a wealth of additional markets and even micro-betting.
Match betting during the group stages is slightly different to the knockout phase, primarily because the ‘Draw’ option is in-play and the wager cannot be considered as an even-money option. This can make it harder to predict outcomes, but there are also much longer odds due to the varied nature of competing sides and potentially higher returns to be banked over time.
Our Top Betting Tips – How to Successfully Leverage These Markets
While understanding these markets is one thing, it’s quite another to place informed bets and leverage them to your advantage. So, we’ve created some expert betting tips and pieces of advice based on the markets above, so that you can wager with confidence and make the most of your hard-earned bankroll.
#1. How (and when) to Back a Tournament Winner
If you’re going to bet on a tournament winner, there are a couple of things that you’ll need to keep in mind as a punter. Firstly, you should tailor your stake to suit the odds in question. For example, backing significant favourites like Brazil to win (at 5/1) should encourage you to commit a slighter higher stake, as while there’s statistically a greater chance of this outcome occurring, the potential returns are typically lower.
Conversely, you can minimise your stake when betting on teams like the Netherlands to win. This is because a price of 14/1 reflects the relatively risky nature of this wager, although the potential returns in play are significantly higher. You can also back multiple sides to win the tournament with your bankroll, depending on your wider betting strategy and how else you intend to deploy your cash.
Similarly, we’d recommend placing your outright winner bets as early as possible, as the ante-post odds tend to shorten across the board as the tournament approaches. This leads to reduced returns and value, so be proactive and decisive when backing your winner (or winners!).
#2. Choose Strikers Who are Likely to Play More Games Than Others
If you’re going to bet on one or more players who you believe could win the Golden Boot in Qatar, you’ll also need to tailor your stake to suit the odds and value proposition in question. In this case, however, most of the potential outcomes feature relatively extended prices, with even favourite Harry Kane backable at around 7/1.
This means that you can place top goalscorer wagers with relatively low stakes, as the returns are quite favourable if you make the right selections. With this type of individual player market, you’ll also need to factor in the relative strength of the teams that they play for.
For example, players who represent strong and fancied nations like Brazil and France are expected to challenge deep into the tournament, so star strikers like Mbappe (9/1), Benzema (12/1) and Neymar (16/1) are likely to offer particular value. This is an important consideration, as most tournament top scorers through history have played for teams that at least reached the semi-finals (including the most recent winner Harry Kane in 2018).
The are exceptions to this rule, of course, such as when Oleg Salenko shared the 1994 World Cup Golden Boot with six goals despite Russia exited at the group stages. In this case, however, the striker scored five in a single game against Cameroon, so it only usually happens in exceptional circumstances.
#3. Choose Your Matches Carefully
We’ll close with our advice for match betting, which as we’ve already touched on, enables you to wager on a potentially huge number of ante-post and in-play outcomes. The key here is to choose your matches carefully, as while some offer exceptional value, others are close to call and tend to feature relatively tight and unappealing odds.
You can also use handicap betting to help make the most of match betting, particularly in early group stage contests that often pit favoured and highly-ranked sides against minnows or less talented squads. Handicap betting must also be used sparingly too, as you must first be able to identify viable mismatches while accurately predicting the likely score line or winning margin.
The Bottom Line
So, there you have it; our brief betting guide to the Qatar World Cup, the key contenders and its primary betting markets. This will certainly provide a great deal of excitement among fans and punters alike, while potentially creating the opportunity to place highly successful and lucrative bets.