The French Open 2023 – Our Betting Preview

Posted by Harry Kane on Tuesday, July 12, 2022

The French Open at Roland Garros has been dominated by the brilliant Spaniard Rafa Nada since his debut in 2005 (where he won the first of his record-breaking 14 French Open titles). However, there’s a serious chance that he may miss the 2023 iteration of the tournament, meaning that a different player could win the event for just the fourth time in 18 years.

This will be music to the ears of Novak Djokovic, who will arrive in Paris looking to overtake Nada’s total Grand Slam haul of 22 titles. The Serbian, who won the 2023 Australian Open with ease back in January, could also cement his status as the sport’s true GOAT win a similarly seamless victory at the French Open.

But can Nadal still be counted among the favourites if he’s declared fit to play in France, and what are the best betting markets when wagering on the 2023 French Open? We’ll answer all of these questions and more in the betting guide below!

What are the Latest French Open Odds?

Despite his haul of 22 Grand Slam titles and the imperious way with which he won his 10th Australian Open crown at the beginning of the year, world number one Djokovic is only the second favourite to prevail at Roland Garros this time around.

This is thanks largely to the presence of the precocious Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, with the 20-year-old leading the next generation of tennis stars having claimed the US Open and his maiden Grand Slam title towards the end of 2022. While he has since struggled with injury and fallen behind Djokovic in the ATP rankings, he enjoyed a superb spring and will arrive in Paris in tip-top form.

The potential presence of Rafa Nadal also looms over the tournament, with some bookies making the Spaniard third favourite at an average price of 7/2 despite his advancing age and ongoing injury concerns. Certainly, Nadal retains the game and shot power to dominate on clay, while his indefatigable spirit and will-to-win make him a threat for as long as he’s in the draw.

Below, we are going to take a closer look at the most likely winners of the 2023 French Open, while analysing their odds to see which players offers the most value. So, let’s get into it!

#1. Carlos Alcaraz – The 13/10 Favourite

Where else but to start with the exceptional Alcaraz, who burst onto the scene last year and has emerged as a generational talent in the same mould as Djokovic,

Nadal and the supremely gifted Roger Federer. Interestingly, Alcaraz’s game has more in common with Nadal’s than his peers, which is why he’s always fancied to do well on clay.

He also demonstrated an impressive temperament to win his first Slam at the US Open last year, thriving in the absence of Djokovic before beating fellow prospect Casper Ruud in the final. He also won consecutive five-set matches against Marin Cilic and young rival Jannik Skinner during this sequence, highlighting his staying power and exceptional physical stamina.

Despite suffering with a number of niggling injuries through 2023 so far, Alcaraz has already won three titles, prevailing at the Argentina Open in his first entry of the year before claiming a third Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells the following month. While he missed the Monte-Carlo Masters reporting post-traumatic arthritis in his left hand, he returned to kick-start his clay court season by defending his titles at the coveted Barcelona Open.

So, Alcaraz will arrive in Paris in exceptional form and in possession of a prestigious clay court title, more than justifying his status as the favourite at Roland Garros. You can back the young Spaniard to win at an average price of 13/10 at present, and while these odds offer value, they’re likely to drift ahead of the tournament so you may want to wager sooner rather than later.

#2. Novak Djokovic – The Best Value Bet at 5/2

Other than Nadal, Djokovic remains the only active player to have won multiple titles at Roland Garros, with the Serbian prevailing in 2016 and 2021. However, he’ll fancy his chances of adding to this tally this time around, particularly if his old rival Nadal is forced to miss out with injury.

Of course, Djokovic has seen his tilt at greatness and pursuit of Grand Slam titles hindered post-Covid 19, with the failure to disclose his vaccination status seeing him denied entry into the Australian and US Open tournaments in 2022. However, he kick-started 2023 with his 92nd career title at the Adelaide International 1, before dropping only a single set and winning his 10th Australian Open title in Melbourne.

Interestingly, Djokovic’s preparation for the French Open has also been disrupted by participation and vaccination status issues, as he was unable to compete in the Indian Wells Masters won by Alcaraz. This seemed to disrupt him, as he was subsequently upset by the unheralded Lorenzo Musetti in the Monte-Carlo Masters’ round of 16.

He also lost to compatriot Dušan Lajović in the quarterfinals of the Banja Luka Open, before withdrawing from the Clay Court Madrid Open. This wobble, coupled with Alcaraz’s perceived natural advantage on clay, makes Djokovic the clear second favourite ahead of Roland Garros. However, his average price of 5/2 offers extraordinary value given his pedigree, so backing Djokovic now could offer some potentially inflated returns.

#3. Rafa Nadal – The Tempter at 9/2

Rafa Nadal has endured a challenging time with injuries of late, with the 36-year-old having subsequently seen his world ranking slump to 14th in recent months. More recently, he even pulled out of the Italian Open as he continues to struggle with a hip complaint, with some suggesting that he may miss the chance to win a 15th title at Roland Garros.

However, it’s more likely that Nadal skipped the Italian Open (alongside earlier clay court events in Monte Carlo and Barcelona) to ensure his fitness ahead of Roland Garros, but

while we’d expect him to enter the tournament, he will be lacking in match sharpness and arguably more vulnerable than he has ever been before on clay.

As a result, he’s priced as high as 9/2 with some bookies to win the 2023 French Open, with this offering a significant conundrum to punters. After all, the Spaniard is known for his incredible fighting spirit and immense quality on Clay, while his record at Roland Garros (where has won 112 and lost just three matches in 18 years) affords him an aura that can be hard to overcome.

The Best Roland Garros Betting Markets

Now that you know the most likely winners of the 2023 French Open, the question that remains is what are the tournament’s best and most popular betting markets? We’ve outlined three of the best Roland Garros betting markets and wager types below while offering some expert tips on how to leverage these to your advantage!

#1. Outright (or Moneyline) Betting

We’ll start with outright or moneyline betting, which is the single most popular market for anyone who wagers on tennis tournaments such as the French Open. As its various names suggest, this market enables you to bet on the outright winner of a particular tournament, creating a simple, even-money wager that can deliver healthy returns.

When comparing the outright market for the 2023 French Open, you can see that there’s a general consensus for each competitor’s pricing and the perceived probability of them winning the tournament. However, prices can vary wildly from one sportsbook to another, creating an opportunity to create additional value simply through your choice of bookie.

At the same time, outright prices tend to drift and change continually in the build-up to a particular tournament. These changes are driven by the volume and nature of bets placed in real-time, with those who are heavily backed seeing their prices shorten over time (whereas unfancied competitors will see their odds lengthen).

Our Tip: Ante post outright odds tend to be the most competitive, especially those associated with the tournament favourites. Remember, these are likely to shorten as the event draws closer, so betting early and decisively can deliver superior returns. Similarly, compare the market fully to identify the best value odds, while also keeping your eyes peeled for enhanced or best price promotions.

#2. Handicap Betting

Tennis is a unique sport in that there’s absolutely no chance of any matches ending in a draw or tie. Even matches that end abruptly due to injury simply see the unfortunate player eliminated while the other progresses to the next stage, and this makes it easier to engage in individual match betting.

It also creates the opportunity for handicap betting, where you apply a theoretical advantage or disadvantage to a player in order to create superior value in the published odds. This is ideal when betting on seeded players or tournament favourites to beat heralded opponents or qualifiers, which is liable to happen frequently during the formative rounds of the tournament.

While the draw for the 2023 French Open, which will run between Monday, May 29nd and Sunday, June 11th, has yet to be confirmed, you can expect the top seeds to earn favourable first-round draws and relatively straightforward paths to the last eight. This creates

ample opportunity for handicap betting, allowing you to lengthen and optimise published odds without overly compromising your chances of winning.

Our Tip: The nature of handicap betting means that it should be used sparingly and only when wagering on matches that have a clear and obvious favourite (usually during the formative rounds of the tournament). Similarly, you should set your handicap carefully, based on your knowledge of the competing players, their relative ability and form heading into the encounter.

#3. Prop Betting

We’ll close with a huge and potentially thrilling market, which allows you to make so-called “prop bets” throughout the 2023 French Open. Prop bets describe a broad and potentially endless selection of wagers that can be placed on different things that may occur during the course of a tournament or tennis match, such as a player winning the event without dropping a single set.

Other examples of prop betting include exact score wagering in a match (which is high risk but also capable of offering exceptional odds), how many sets a particular player will win and over/under markets pertaining to the number of aces hit. All of these markets are characterised as being high risk and high reward, but they may offer enhanced value if you’re a tennis enthusiast or keen student of the game.

Prop betting also affords you the freedom to combine multiple markets and outcomes in a single wager, allowing you to customise your bet slips in a bid to maximise your potential returns. For example, you could create a combination bet on who will win a particular match and the exact score, or factor in additional markets such as the final winning margin.

Our Tip: Prop betting requires significant skill and sporting knowledge if it’s to be leveraged successfully, while such wagers should also be deployed sparingly and only in specific instances. Similarly, you’ll need to manage your bankroll when prop betting and wagering on high-priced outcomes, ideally by committing relatively small stakes that reflect the risk-reward ratio.

The Last Word

So, there you have it; our detailed betting guide for the 2023 French Open at the iconic Roland Garros! As you can see, Carlos Alcaraz and the legendary Novak Djokovic remain the obvious ante post favourites, but the possible absence of the 14-time French Open winner Rafa Nadal means that this will be an incredibly tough tournament to call!