The Ashes 2023 – Our Extensive Betting Guide

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, August 5, 2022

The Ashes remains one of the most iconic and prestigious sporting events in the world, with a rich and fascinating history that dates all the way back to the very first Test match between England and Australia in 1877.

This years’ iteration is also set to be one of the most keenly contested in recent years, with Australia ranked as the world’s second-best test side (behind India) and the Three Lions adopting an incredibly aggressive style of play referred to affectionately as ‘Bazball’.

But will England make their newfound confidence and home advantage count or can Australia once again dominate their oldest of enemies? We’ll explore all this and more in the following betting guide, while explaining the best and most popular wagering markets relevant to the event.

The Ashes – A Brief History

Interestingly, the Melbourne 1877 Test match between England and Australia wasn’t an official ‘Ashes’ contest, with this particular sporting legend being borne five years later in 1882. At this time, Australia headed to the Kennington Oval to contest a single Test against the rivals, with England previously undefeated at home against Australian opponents.

The match proved to be incredibly low scoring, thanks largely to the conditions and uncovered pitch. England even secured a seemingly crucial first innings advantage, after bowling the Aussies out for just 63 before managing to score a relatively prolific 101 runs in reply.

Still, Australia mustered a defiant and noticeably aggressive approach for the time in their second innings, hitting 122 in 63 overs and being led by a superb 55 (in just 60 balls) by batsman Hugh Massie. This set the Three Lions the challenge of scoring 85 runs to win and maintain their unbeaten record on home soil.

While some Aussies apparently felt defeated, legendary fast bowler Fred Spofforth was in determined mood, having been irritated by some of the gamesmanship displayed by England during the match. He subsequently ripped through his tense and startled opponents with career-best figures of 7-44, claiming 14 wickets in the match and helping to bowl England out for just 77.

In response, the English papers famously heralded the demise of English cricket, while legend suggests that one of the bails used in the match was subsequently burned into ash.

These ashes were then put into an urn and allegedly sent back to Australia with the winning captain, with all subsequent series between these two sides subsequently referred to ‘Ashes’ encounters.

In terms of historical performance, these two nations have contested 356 individual Ashes’ tests, up to an including the 2021/22 series Down Under. Australia have won 150 of these matches, with England successful on 110 occasions and 96 contests ending in draws.

Interestingly, Australia’s relative dominance in individual tests isn’t exactly replicated in historical series results. In fact, Australia have won 34 Ashes series in total, while England have won the urn on 32 occasions and a further six series have ended in draws.

Typically, these teams perform better at home, with 18 of England’s series wins coming outside of Australia. The Aussies have claimed 20 Ashes series’ wins on home soil, with a further 14 coming as the away side. However, Australia haven’t won a series in England since the summer of 2001, although they did earn a draw that allowed them to retain the Ashes urn on their last tour in 2019.

So, it’s fair to surmise that England retain a competitive advantage ahead of the 2023 summer series, despite experiencing some significant away defeats since 2011. It will be interesting to see if this plays out over the course of the summer, but there’s no doubt that England is a difficult and unique place for away sides to visit.

When is the 2023 Summer Ashes?

The Ashes will commence on June 16th, when the first summer test of 2023 will get underway at the Edgbaston Cricket Ground in Birmingham. This will be the first encounter in a five-match Test series, with subsequent games scheduled to take place at Lords (London), Headingly (Leeds), Manchester (Old Trafford) and The Oval (London). Here’s a summary of the relevant dates, just in case you want to book tickets!

The Lates Ashes 2023 Odds

As weI’ve already touched on, home advantage and the prevailing conditions are key considerations when bookmakers set the odds for the Ashes. However,

this summer’s series is proving increasingly difficult to call, thanks in part to Australia’s outstanding pace attack and questions over just how sustainable England’s playing style is.

Because of this, the Three Lions are priced at around 11/10 to win the 2023 Ashes, while the visiting Aussies boast an average price of 6/5 at the time or writing. This means that while England are the betting favourites by the slimmest of margins, Australia retains an excellent chance of winning the urn for the fourth consecutive series and fifth time in six attempts overall.

The Best Ashes Betting Markets

If you are going to wager on the outcome of the 2023 Summer Ashes, it’s important to determine and understand the primary betting markets. We’ve outlined some of the most popular below, while asking what sets them apart and why you should consider leveraging them to your advantage.

Outright Betting on the Series Winner

In every sports betting iteration, so-called “outright” wagering describes a scenario where you bet on the winner of a particular tournament. Usually, this is the ultimate even money betting market, as your pick will either win and earn you a return on your stake or they’ll lose, and your initial wager will be lost forever.

However, outright betting is a little more complex in the case of the Ashes, as while there are only two competing sides (which theoretically makes it easier to predict a winner than stacked tournaments like the Cricket World Cup), you must also factor in the draw as a potential outcome.

While the defending champions retain the Ashes in the event of a draw series, this isn’t reflected in the betting odds. More specifically, your bet will simply be placed on the team who you think will win the series outright, so a draw will void your wager and see your stake amount lost.

You can bet on a drawn series, of course, but this is statistically unlikely as an uneven number of tests (five) are contested. Remember, just six Ashes’ series have ended in draws during the competition’s history, and you’ll need to rely on rare drawn test matches or inclement weather if this outcome (which is appropriately priced at 11/2) is to occur.

Exact Score Betting

Correct score betting is also popular when wagering on Ashes series, as this can unlock a fascinating marketplace and some genuinely competitive odds. Sure, it’s fair to suggest that betting on the correct series score is relatively high risk due to the sheer number of permutations in play, you can at least study historical and current form to arrive at a more informed decision.

A quick glance at the ante post odds reveals that you can back both a 2-2 draw and a 3-2 victory for England at an average price of 5/1, with these considered to be the most likely outcomes by sportsbooks. Interestingly, you can back England to win 5-0 at odds of around 30/1, while an Australian whitewash is priced at 50/1.

But what does the historical form say? Well, if you look at the last nine Ashes series dating back to 2006, England have prevailed four times but never won more than three test matches in a single series. While Australia have also triumphed in four series during this time, they’ve won four or more tests on four separate occasions, including two whitewashes in 2006/07 and 2013/14.

If you drill down on the four series that have taken place in England between 2006 and 2022, England have won three and were held to a draw last time out in 2019. However, they’ve only won a single series by a margin of more than one test during this period, when they rather fortunately prevailed 3-0 in 2013.

Individual Player Markets

While Ashes cricket is ostensibly a team game, it’s also a hotbed of individual player markets. For example, you can bet on the identity of the top overall run scorer and wicket taker in the series, or focus your attention on each country’s most prolific batsmen and bowlers.

These markets also tend to offer relatively competitive odds. For example, former Australia and England skippers Steve Smith and Joe Root are both joint favourites to top the run-scoring charts this year, at an ante post price of 10/3. So, a £30 stake will earn you a return of £130 and total profit of £100.

As for the series’ top bowler, Pat Cummins (Australia) and Ollie Robinson (England) are considered to be the most likely at average odds of 9/2 and 5/1 respectively. Fascinatingly, James Anderson is priced as high as 7/1 despite his pedigree in English conditions, while the similarly supreme Stuart Broad also offers outstanding value at odds of 13/2.

Studying the form is absolutely key here, both in terms of recent test matches and how players have performed historically in England and at specific grounds. You may also want to give additional weight to Australian players who are currently playing country cricket in England, as they may have a competitive edge by the time the series starts.

Key Ashes Betting Tips in 2023

The question that remains, of course, is how can you leverage these betting markets to your advantage ahead of the 2023 Ashes? Here are three expert and insightful tips based on the markets referenced above!

Consider Backing an England Win

If you’re in the market for an outright bet, we’d recommend that you favour England. Sure, these two sides are relatively evenly matched (Australia and the Three Lions are ranked second and third in the world respectively), but home advantage holds huge sway in Test series of this type.

England are also superior form, having won 10 of their 12 Test matches since the appointment of Brendon McCullum as head coach in May 2022. This run has also seen some swashbuckling performances and the emergence of so-called “Bazball”, which is an aggressive and high-risk brand of cricket that opponents have so far struggled to contend with.

As for the Aussies, they’ve won five of their previous nine tests, while incurring a 2-1 defeat to India last time out. Interestingly, they’ll also contest the 2023 World Test Championship final against the Indians immediately before the first Ashes test, so their focus won’t only be on the English in the coming days.

Consider the Weather Ahead of Correct Score Betting

Cricket is unlike many sports, in terms of how dramatically it can be affected by the weather. Make no mistake; players may be asked to leave the field and entire days can be washed out due to rain or precipitation (or even bad light), as such conditions directly impact gameplay and may endanger participants in some instances.

This makes correct score betting even more challenging that it may otherwise have been, in two key ways. Firstly, it can wash out entire days and make it impossible to achieve a positive result, while certain conditions (such as excess dampness or overcast clouds) may favour the home side and influence the final result.

So, before you engage in correct score betting, try to access medium and long-term weather forecasts for the relevant venues, so you can make a more informed observation about the likelihood of drawn games and factor this into your final bet slip.

Analyse Recent Player Form and Playing Style

As we’ve already touched on, player form is key when entering individual player markets, but you should also streamline your analysis by looking at how participants have performed in England. For example, the prolific Steve Smith averages an impressive 59.80 across his career, while this metric only drops slightly to 59.55 when playing on these shores.

So, he’s a good bet to be the top Ashes run score, especially as he will also represent Sussex in the County Championship either side of the series. Fellow batsman Marnus Labuschagne also averages over 50 in England (and 57.50 during his career), while he has also achieved continued success representing Glamorgan this season.

We’d also give weight to each performer’s playing style before placing your bets. For example, English conditions lend themselves to swing and seam movement, so technically loose players who drive excessively are more likely to get out. Conversely, tight and patient batsmen like Labuschagne are much more likely to perform well and record high scores in England.