The Argument Against Progressive Strategies in Roulette

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, August 11, 2017

Have you ever wondered why bookmakers tend to make so much money and achieve large profits each year?

In truth, much of it lies in the inability of the human mind to accurately gauge or estimate odds, as you can see from the classic coin toss analogy. In simple terms, this means that the odds of landing heads or tails when flipping a coin are always unchanged at 50-50 (or 1:1 in betting circles), regardless of how many times you complete this process.

Despite this, our minds are predisposed to think that the odds of landing tails are improved after a coin has turned up heads for four consecutive turns, causing us to make ill-informed and potentially costly decisions.

A Look at Progressive Betting Systems in Roulette: Are They Reliable?

This is known colloquially as a gamblers’ fallacy, and it is one of many misconceptions that plague poker, blackjack and roulette players across the globe. With the human mind constantly trying to distinguish discernible patterns in seemingly random results and number sequences, it can be hard to determine an effective strategy that optimises your chances of success.

This is particularly true in roulette, as the majority of betting systems are progressive in their nature and require you to incrementally increase your wager with consecutive win or loss. While a positive progression system asks players to increase their betting unit by one after each win, those who deploy a negative progression alternative must wager more with every single loss that they record.

In short, your system is based on winning and losing sequences, as you strive to capitalise on a streak of wins or maximise the value of every successful spin that you achieve.

On a positive note, progressive betting systems can offer tangible benefits depending on your circumstances. If you have a relatively large bankroll and class yourself as a high-roller with a desire to win big, for example, a negative progression system enables you to incrementally build your in-between each winning spin. This ultimately maximises the value of every win that you record, while it also ensures that you make your large bankroll work as hard as possible on your behalf.

The same cannot be said for casual players, however, as for anyone with a smaller bankroll or less of an appetite for risk the notion of progressive (either positive or negative) is fraught with risk. Adopting a negative progression system can cause you to run out of capital while waiting for a winning spin, while deploying a positive progression strategy encourages you to increase your stake as you win despite the fact that every single turn of the wheel triggers a random and entirely unpredictable outcome.

The Last Word: Creating a Minimal Risk Betting Strategy

This makes a compelling argument against deploying progressive betting systems, unless you have certain factors such as a large bankroll and a healthy appetite for risk in your favour. In this respect, biggest danger is actually using a progressive betting system for the wrong reasons, however, as neither positive or negative strategies have the effect of reducing the prevailing house odds or altering your odds of winning.

Ultimately, casual or risk-averse players should adopt a flat betting system, which leverage the same stake and respects the random nature of each spin. Similarly, they should look for tangible ways of increasing their chances of winning, by prioritising European Roulette (which has a low house edge of 2.7%) and covering as much of the wheel as possible with their wagers.

Similarly, backing even money or 1:1 wagers (such as odds, evens, red or black) also optimises your chance of securing frequent wins, which is crucial if you hope to build returns over a prolonged period of time.