The 2023/24 EPL – Our Extensive Betting Guide
Posted by Harry Kane on Wednesday, September 20, 2023
The start of the 2023/24 Premier League season is now less a week away, with defending champions Manchester City set to launch the defence of their title with trip to face newly promoted Burnley on Friday, 11th August at Turf Moor. The citizens are also the overwhelming favourites to win the EPL again this season, as they go in search of an historic fourth consecutive title success.
However, a resurgent Arsenal side have spent heavily in pre-season as they bid to close the gap on their rivals, while Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United side have also improved following an impressive third place finish in 2022/23. Then there’s Liverpool, who are tipped to rebound this season despite being in a period of transition. In this comprehensive betting guide, We are going to appraise the latest odds and betting markets, while offering some expert tips on how you can leverage these to your advantage.
What are the Odds for the 2023/24 Premier League Season?
Premier League Winner Odds
- Manchester City – 5/6
- Arsenal – 5/1
- Liverpool – 8/1
- Manchester United – 11/1
- Chelsea – 16/1
- Newcastle – 28/1
- Tottenham – 50/1
- Brighton – 125/1
At the time of writing, the ante post odds place Manchester City as the clear favourites to win the 2023/24 EPL, with an average price of 5/6 being quoted across the major sportsbooks. There’s certainly justification for such pricing, with the Citizens having won five of the last six Premier League crowns and three in a row since the 2020/21 campaign.
However, no team has ever won four successive Premier League titles, while City would also achieve a first by winning six crowns in seven seasons (Manchester United also achieved five in six between 1995 and 2001). This suggests that greater betting value may exist outside of City, especially given the nature of the current odds. For example:
The Logical Bet – Arsenal (5/1)
Despite leading the EPL table for a staggering 248 days last season before falling away towards the end of the 2022/23 campaign (no side has ever led as long without eventually winning the title), Arsenal only finished five points behind City last season. They’ve also spent more than £200 million on Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and the versatile Jurrien Timber, so should be expected to compete once again at a relatively generous price of 5/1.
The Best Value Bet – Manchester United (11/1)
Perhaps the best value wager lies with fourth favourites Manchester United, who are priced at an average of 11/1 to win a 21st top-flight title and first since 2013. Certainly, manager Erik ten Hag overachieved in his first campaign in Manchester, finishing third and ending a six-year trophy drought by lifting the 2022/23 Carabao Cup. He has also invested wisely in the summer while continuing to shape his playing squad, while he has a record of achieving significant success in his second season at clubs.
The Outside Bet – Chelsea (16/1)
Liverpool’s odds of 8/1 don’t seem to account for the side’s transitional status, whereas Chelsea are priced as high as 16/1 to win the EPL after a turbulent 2022/23 campaign and 12th place finish. However, the Blues now have the Premier League proven Mauricio Pochettino in charge of the club, while they retain an excellent playing squad and a track record of consistently challenging for the title (even after brief periods of decline). Sure, Pochettino has yet to win a major trophy in England, but he has never before had such resources at his disposal.
The Best Premier League Betting Markets for 2023/24
In addition to wagering on the outright winner of the 2023/24 Premier League, you can simultaneously access a broad range of betting markets pertaining to both teams and individual players. We’ve outlined some of the best examples below, so you can spread your bankroll effectively and achieve optimal value for your hard-earned cash.
The Golden Boot Winner
The most popular individual player betting market pertains to the identity of the Golden Boot winner, with this typically seeing significant wagering volumes year-on-year. This years’ iteration should be no exception, despite the apparent dominance of Manchester City hitman Erling Haaland and his starting price of 8/11.
Make no mistake; Haaland ripped up the EPL in his debut season in 2022/23, plundering a record 36 goals in just 35 appearances for the Citizens. He also struck 52 goals in 53 games across all competitions, including an impressive 12 goals in 11 UCL outings as he fired City to their maiden Champions League win.
The odds suggest that Haaland will top score once again this season, but this bet offers minimal value unless you’re willing to increase your stake amount significantly. This may not be a bad strategic bet given Haaland’s pedigree, but are there any others who offer superior value in the marketplace?
Well, Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah can be backed at a generous price of 10/1, while Liverpool are tipped to enjoy a resurgence following an impressive end to the Reds’ 2022/23 campaign. Although the Egyptian only scored 19 EPL goals in 38 appearances last season, he has hit 137 goals in 218 career Premier League games to date and claimed three previous Golden Boots in 2017/18, 2018//19 and 2021/22.
Harry Kane has also won three career EPL Golden Boots, while he struck an impressive 30 league goals last season in just 38 matches through 2022/23. It should be noted that these goals were scored in a desperately poor Spurs side, so a current price of 14/1 offers considerable value ahead of the new campaign (especially if new Tottenham manager Ange Postecoglou can instil a more aggressive playing style in North London).
Which Teams Will Finish in the Top Four
Given the lucrative nature of the UEFA Champions League, securing a top four place in the EPL and qualifying for Europe’s most prestigious tournament remains a leading priority among the top clubs. This will certainly prove true ahead of the UCL’s proposed expansion in 2024, so betting on who will qualify for Europe will be hugely popular this year.
Obviously, both City and Arsenal are odds-on to achieve this objective, priced at an average of 1/16 and 1/2 respectively. Both Liverpool (4/7) and Man United (4/5) are also tipped to qualify for the UCL this season, so it can be hard to find odds that offer both monetary value and have a good chance of winning.
However, big-spending Newcastle are priced at a relatively generous 9/5, despite finishing fourth and claiming the final Champions League place in 2022/23. Chelsea are also available at 13/8, which definitely offers value at a nominal stake amount given the quality of their squad and Pochettino’s previous EPL record at Spurs.
Which Sides are Likely to be Relegated?
No team wants to be relegated from the Premier League, especially given the subsequent financial losses incurred by afflicted sides. However, another three will be demoted to the EFL Championship this season, with Luton Town largely expected to be among them (the Hatters are currently 4/11 to lose their top-flight status after just a single season).
Beyond this, however, it’s likely to be a tight and difficult race to call, with a handful of sides potentially facing a relegation battle in 2023/24. These include newly promoted Sheffield United (4/6) and Burnley (7/2), with the Clarets being tipped by most sportsbooks to stay up this season.
But which sides offer the most betting value as relegation candidates? Well, Everton endured a harrowing 2022/23 campaign, and despite the reassuring presence of manager Sean Dyche, the Toffees have struggled to improve ttheir squad during the summer and remain worryingly short of goals. So, a price of 3/1 for Everton to be relegated definitely offers value at first glance.
Then there’s Wolves, who have offloaded more players than they have signed this summer, including first team regulars such as Ruben Neves, Nathan Collins, Conor Coady and striker Raul Jiminez. Manager Julen Lopetegui is also said to be considering his position considering the lack of funds and disappointing summer, so Wolves may well find themselves in a relegation battle despite being priced at 33/10 to face the drop.
Three EPL Betting Tips for the 2023/24 Season
With these betting markets in mind, of course, the question that remains is how can you leverage these to your advantage as a punter ahead of the 2023/24 campaign? Fortunately, we’ve provided some expert betting tips and insights below, with a view to optimising your bankroll and increasing your chances of seeing a return on your stake amounts!
Consider Backing More Than One Outright Winner
While only one team can win the 2023/24 Premier League, this doesn’t mean that you can’t back multiple teams to achieve this objective. The key here lies with bankroll management, as you to set a responsible and fixed amount that you can commit to outright wagering before distributing this between different potential outcomes.
For example, let’s say that you have £20 with which to back the winner of this season’s title. In this instance, you could stake around £15 on City to win the league at 5/6, with this returning £27.50 in total and a profit of £12.50. This potential return would guarantee a profit on your total stake if City do prevail, while freeing up the additional £5 to pursue other (and more lucrative) markets.
Subsequently, a further £3.50 could be staked on Arsenal to win at 5/1, creating a potential payout of £21.00 and profit of £17.50. The remaining £1.50 can then be staked on either Manchester United (11/1) or Chelsea (16/1) to triumph, with these bets capable of generating £16.50 and £24.00 respectively if they’re successful.
With this type of strategic distribution, you’re able to cover more potential outcomes and increase your chances of securing a return without spending outside of your means. By also adjusting your stake amounts carefully, you should be able to optimise any potential returns while also minimising losses across the board.
Bet on Multiple and Carefully Selected Markets
A similar principle can be applied to your choice of betting markets, as you look to manage your bankroll and determine precisely how much you can wager on EPL markets ahead of the new campaign. Once this sum has been determined as part of your wider bankroll management techniques, you can look to distribute this across your choice of available betting markets.
This includes team and player markets, such as which side will finish in the EPL top four and who will end up winning the 2023/24 Golden Boot. Crucially, you’ll have to review a large range of Premier League betting markets before the 2023/24 season gets underway, so that you can make informed choices and selections.
But how can you make such selections? Well, this depends on your outlook and appetite for risk, alongside the quality of your analysis and ability to identify value in published odds. For example, if you think Wolves or Everton will be relegated this season, we’d recommend betting now and capitalising on generous ante post odds.
Just be sure to analyse key form and data statistics, while also committing to wagering as early as you can when engaging with ante post markets. The reason for this is simple; as it affords you access to extended prices before the odds begin to drift in line with betting volumes and activity.
Tailoring Stakes to Suit the Value Proposition
As we’ve already touched on, you can tailor your stake amounts in line with your overall betting activity and bankroll management strategies. However, you should also have a clearly defined betting strategy that informs every single stake, as this helps you to simultaneously optimise potential returns and minimise risk.
For example, when backing City to win the league at a price of around 5/6, it’s worth increasingly your average stake as described earlier. After all, this outcome is highly likely to occur given the Citizens dominance, while the inflated stake will help to optimise your eventual returns.
Conversely, backing Chelsea at 16/1 comes with much higher levels of risk and naturally higher returns, so consider betting a nominal amount (such as £1) to capitalise on this. To fully appraise value, you should analyse each outcome’s implied probability, which can be calculated using a predetermined formula.
This will determine the statistical likelihood of a particular event occurring, and you can measure this against the published odds and your existing knowledge to determine value in real-time. This should subsequently inform your stake, as you look to strike the balance between boosting your prospective returns and maximising potential losses.