The Psychology of Gambling and Knowing When to Stick or Twist

Posted by Harry Kane on Thursday, April 16, 2020

While gambling tends to get a bad rap in the UK, much of this can be attributed to negative press and the machinations of rogue operators who account for a relatively small portion of the overall market.

Bettors are also the subject of judgement and misconceptions, as while they’re commonly portrayed as being compulsive and lacking in discipline that fact remains that most wager in a controlled manner and with a clearly defined betting or bankroll strategy.

This is certainly true in the case of successful gamblers; whose psychology and underlying sense of determinism enables them to leverage strategy as a way of navigating games of chance. But what defines the psychology of gambling, and how do the best bettors know when to stick or twist?

How Do Successful Bettors Approach Gambling?

Of course, it’s important to note that not all gambling disciplines have been created equal, which means that bettors must deploy different systems and strategies when looking to optimise their returns.

However, the mindset amongst successful gamblers will always remain unchanged, as they approach their activity from the perspective of logic and probability rather than emotion.

In this respect, a successful gambler will treat each wager as a calculated investment, and one that’s capable of delivering a viable return. This is an important consideration, as the lines between gambling and investment remain increasingly blurred in the digital age.

For example, each investment has its own unique risk-reward profile, and the same can be said for a specific sports bet or roulette spin. More specifically, each sport will offer variable odds and value, while the likelihood and impact of winning on a single roulette spin will be influenced by your betting strategy, the size of your stake and your overall coverage of the wheel.

Understanding such profiles and the value proposition of each bet will inform a successful gamblers strategy, while enabling them to manage their bankroll in its entirety and achieve incremental gains.

This methodical and reasoned approach is at odds with the image of gambling high-rollers, who are almost exclusively portrayed as being reckless and backed by a huge bankroll.

While this may make for more entertaining films and television series’, however, it doesn’t capture the reality of high-stakes gambling either on or offline.

Taking Incremental Steps to Optimise Success

This type of mindset also helps to manage a gambler’s expectations, which is crucial when attempting to achieve sustainable gains that boost your bankroll consistently and over time.

It certainly prevents gamblers from impulsively chasing losses as an emotional response, while it also ensures that they don’t overlook the opportunistic nature of games of chance and try to deploy strategies that compel players to chase huge wins on a regular basis.

Instead, successful gamblers take a detail-oriented approach that aims to minimise risk and lower the associated house edge where possible, as this optimises their chances of winning over time and enhances the overall return-to-player (RTP) rate.

The latter refers to the average amount of money that a player can expect to recoup for every £1 spent, while the difference in percentage terms between this figure and 100% should also leave you with an accurate house edge.

To understand this further, let’s consider the example of a roulette player. Rather than attempting to identify non-existence patterns of sequences in results or stake huge amounts on single digit, inside bets, a successful and seasoned gambler will instead prioritise outside wagers (which typically pay out at odds of around 2 or 3/1) and ensure that their bankroll covers as much of the wheel as possible.

This creates a scenario where a bettor can increase their chances of securing a return with every single spin, and over time this is likely to pay out more than staking huge amounts of wagers that carry inflated odds of 36/1 or above.

A thoughtful gambler may also combine this approach with a so-called ‘negative progression’ betting strategy, which sees them increase their stake incrementally with every single loss. In theory, this optimises the pay out of each individual win, while the increased frequency of successful spins will translate into more substantial gains overall.

Of course, you can also wager a consistent stake amount per spin if you want to maintain a slightly more conservative approach to managing your bankroll, as this enables you to set a slightly higher bet unit during each session of gameplay.

Conversely, we’d recommend lowering the value of your individual bet unit when deploying a negative progression system, as you don’t want to incur substantial losses while waiting for winning spins.

This accounts for the underlying element of chance that defines table games such as roulette, hopefully increasing your overall return in the process!

Stick or Twist – Why Bankroll Management Should Overrule Instinct

It’s also argued that successful or seasoned gamblers rely heavily on instinct, but again there’s probably less truth in this than initially meets the eye.

After all, while really experienced gamblers (and indeed investors) can grow to trust and follow their instinct over time, this should be used sparingly and never as a fundamental way of dictating your strategy or managing your hard-earned bankroll.

Instead, it’s the size and deployment of your bankroll that should drive your decision making as a successful gambler, both in terms of how much you stake per bet and whether or not to stick or twist.

In terms of your stake amount, let’s use sports betting as an example. More specifically, let’s assume that you want to place two bets and have £10 with which to play with, with one outcome heavily favoured at odds of 1/2 and the second considered to be an outside punt with a price of 10/1.

When looking to deploy your bankroll wisely, your best bet is to place a larger amount (say £7) on the odds-on outcome. The reason for this is simple; as it while the potential returns may be modest, this approach is most likely to secure a return on your overall investment.

Conversely, you can place the remainder of your money on the outside bet, as this enables you to simultaneously chase a far larger return without risking too much of your bankroll.

The key is to ensure that your selected outside bet selection is informed and capable of offering a viable value proposition, but this is bread and butter for most seasoned gamblers!

As for determining whether or not to stick or twist, your bankroll should also play a key role in driving your decision. More specifically, you should never look to bet beyond your set bankroll, unless you’ve allowed for a contingency and aren’t already wagering as much as you can afford to lose.

Make no mistake; experienced gamblers almost always make betting selections that are informed by their bankroll, as this arguably minimises loses and prevents them from making rash or emotional judgements when wagering.