Our Comprehensive Betting Guide to the 2024 US Open

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, March 29, 2024

Xander Schauffele produced a record-breaking performance in the US PGA Championship last weekend, finishing an astonishing 21-under par at Valhalla, Kentucky. The American had ice in his veins as he shot a nerveless 65 in the final round, as he held of strong challenges from Bryson DeChambeau and the ever-improving Viktor Hovland.

However, there isn’t much time for the dust to settle on Schauffele’s achievement, with the third annual major of the golf season (the US Open) scheduled to take place between June 10th and June 16th. It will be hosted by the Pinehurst Resort in North Carolina, as Wyndham Clark looks to defend the title he won so impressively in 2023.

The US Open – A Brief History

The US Open is the second oldest golf major, having been inaugurated 25 years after the Open Championship in 1885. It’s hosted by the United States Golf Association (USGA) and played at various locations throughout the US, with the 2024 iteration set to be held at the iconic Pinehurst Resort in North Carolina.

Unlike some golf majors and tournaments, the US Open has always adopted a stroke play format, ever since it was first contested on October 4th, 1895. Initially, the tournament was a 36-hole competition and played during a single day, while it was contested by just 10 professional players and one amateur.

As the name suggests, the tournament remains open to both professional and amateur players. However, amateurs must meet fairly stringent criteria to qualify for the US Open, including getting their handicap down to just 0.4 or lower. This enables them to contest an 18-hоle qualifier, and a successful performance here sees them compete in a final 36-hole qualifier.

British players dominated the tournament until 1911, which preceded a spell of seven successive victories for US players between 1912 and 1920. This dominance has largely been continued ever since, with seven of the previous nine winners heralding from North America. Overall, 13 of the 24 winners in the 21st century have been American, including Wyndham Clark in 2023.

Since 1950, players from just six countries have won the US Open (outside of the United States). Other than the US, South African players have been the most successful, producing five winners since 1965. Interestingly, there was an historic streak of four successive non-US winners between 2004 and 2007, with this having only occurred once previously in 1910.

Unlike the US PGA Championship, the US Open is characterised by tight scoring at or around par. Typically, the winner usually scores at around even par, although this trend was bucked in 2023 as Clark recorded a triumphant score of 10-under par. This has much to do with the fact that the US Open course is changed annually, while the selected venue will usually have a cut of “open” rough and undulating greens.

A Look at the US Open Odds – Who are the Frontrunners?

The pre-tournament odds for the 2024 US Open have changed slightly in the wake of the US PGA Championship, with the superb performance of maiden winner Xander Schauffele seeing the American’s price shorten noticeably. Here’s a summary of the latest outright odds for the tournament and the most likely winners!

#1. Scottie Scheffler – 4/1

Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament favourite to win the 2024 US Open, having won his second Masters title in April and recorded four PGA Tour victories already this year. He also finished 6-under par after four rounds at Valhalla, despite the shock of being arrested prior to competing in the second round of the tournament.

Scheffler remains the world number one and has done ever since May 19th, while he’s undoubtedly the most consistent player on the PGA Tour at present. Interestingly, his recent win at the RBC Heritage event saw him triumph for the fourth time in five outings, with this level of dominance scarcely seen since the halcyon days of the iconic Tiger Woods.

Another factor in favour of Scheffler is his putting and work around the greens. This will prove highly effective at Pinehurst, where the Bermuda grass makes it hard to chip onto the greens and requires a considerable skillset. The targets on the greens are also incredibly small, so choosing the correct shot from the outset is crucial.

Make no mistake; Scheffler’s form and pedigree earmark him as the favourite ahead of the 2024 US Open, notwithstanding his lack of a sustained challenge at Valhalla. He also has the short game, variation and consistency to win a third major tournament, and first at the US Open (after tying for second place in 2022).

#2. Rory McIlroy – 10/1

Ulsterman and current world number two Rory McIlroy may be a little disappointed with his performance at Valhalla, where he won his last major tournament in 2014. He also won his maiden major title at the US Open in 2011, triumphing by eight strokes from Jason Day at the Congressional Country Club in Maryland.

He certainly entered the PGA Championship in excellent form, having won two PGA titles to date in 2024. This haul includes the coveted Wells Fargo Championship (which McIlroy has now won on four occasions), with the Ulsterman finishing 17-under par at the Quail Hollow Club and five points clear of US PGA victor Xander Schauffele.

Once again, however, he was unable to replicate his very best form in a highly competitive field at Valhalla. The scoring was incredibly low here, and while McIlroy played well and finished a respectable 12-under par, he simply couldn’t keep pace with the leaders as they pulled away in rounds three and four.

McIlroy also struggled when the US Open was held at Pinehurst in 2014, as he achieved a 72-hole score of 286 and finished six-over par as he finished tied for 23rd. However, he simply cannot be discounted ahead of the US Open, and it only seems a matter of time before he claims a long-awaited fourth major title.

#3. Xander Schauffele – 12/1

Schauffele’s performance at the PGA Championship has seen his odds slashed ahead of the US Open, as he won his first major with a truly superb display of consistent low scoring. In fact, his 21-under par score of 263 was the lowest combined score in men’s major championship history, although it should be noted that the entire tournament was played in extremely favourable conditions.

However, not only was this victory Schauffele’s first in major championships, but it was only his eighth PGA Tour win overall. In fact, it was his first competitive title since he won the Genesis Scottish Open on July 10th, 2022, so he struggled to replicate his best form over the last couple of years.

The good news is that the US Open is already barely three weeks away, so Schauffele will be able to carry a huge amount of momentum into the tournament. He’s also ranked third in the world after his record-breaking performance at Valhalla, and undoubtedly offers significant betting value at an average price of 12/1.

Like Scheffler, Schauffele’s approach play and greens-in-regulation ranking is very impressive, so he has the game to perform particularly well at Pinehurst. He has also sunk a total of 290 one-stroke putts across 702 holes so far in 2024, equating to an impressive conversion rate of 41.31%. These performance metrics will stand him in good stead in the US Open.

Our 2024 US Open Betting Tips

Now that you know a little more about the US Open and the pre-tournament favourites, you can start to cultivate a viable betting strategy and make your selections. To help you in this regard, we’ve created some detailed betting tips and insights based on both current performance stats and the most recent iterations of the tournament!

• Give Weight to Players Seeking Their First Major Title: Unlike some major championships, just three of the last 10 US Open winners have won a tournament of this type previously. These include Brooks Koepka (who recorded back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2018), Jordan Spieth and 2014 victor Martin Kaymer. So, inexperienced players or those who have yet to win a major are likely to be particularly competitive at Pinehurst, especially those who are in good form. It’s a trend factor that certainly favours Scandinavian pair Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Åberg, with the former having also placed third in the recent PGA Championship.
• Favour American Players and Competitors: As we’ve already touched on, 13 of the 24 PGA Championships winners in the 21st century have been American born, including seven of the previous nine victors since 2015. This will be music to the ears of favourite Scottie Scheffler and US PGA champion Xander Schauffele, while 2023 winner Wyndham Clark also heralds from the US. Interestingly, this may also encourage you to wager on the nationality of the 2024 winner, which is a popular US Open betting market that’s even money in nature.
• Form is Key at the US Open: Form is always key when picking golf tournament winners, as rhythm and swing are central to how well players strike the ball. This is arguably even more important in the case of the US Open, with each of the last 10 winners having recorded a top-eight finish within their last five tour events. Four of the previous five also finished in the top eight the last major (the PGA Championship), favouring alternative players like Colin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau as well as Scheffler and McIlroy. In the case of Scheffler, he has now recorded an incredible 10 top-10 finish in just 11 events so far in 2024.
• Pay Attention to the World Rankings: When it comes to the rankings, no player outside the world’s top 32 has won the US Open in the last 10 iterations. 2023 winner Wyndham Clark was ranked 32nd at the time of his victory last year, but this was very much an outlier in a tournament that tends to favour the best and most in-form players. This also much to do with the challenging nature of US Open courses and their undulating greens, which may prove challenging for less consistent or able players. This should be one of the numerous metrics that you use when appraising competitors and picking potential winners.
• Use the Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) Metric to Inform Your Picks: The aforementioned “green in regulation” (GIR) metric rewards players for getting the ball onto the putting green within a finite number of strokes (depending on the par score at a particular hole). This is a key metric at Pinehurst, where it can be hard to navigate greens and the large cuts of open rough. It’s also a statistical barometer that suits world number one and Masters winner Scheffler, who has hit the green within the requisite number of strokes 471 times in 630 attempts (for a success rate of 74.76%).

The Top 3 Golf Betting Markets

Before we bring this guide to a close, we’re going to recommend the three best and most rewarding golf betting markets ahead of the 2024 US Open. There are plenty of ways in which you can wager on the third major of the PGA Tour campaign, including the following:

• The Outright Winner: This enables you to pick one or more potential winners of the 2024 US Open. Try to spread your stake across one or more potential outcomes where possible, while there’s no doubt that Scottie Scheffler is the deserved favourite given his outstanding form and the nature of the Pinehurst course.
• 3-Ball Betting: Often at major tournaments, players complete in groups of three during the early rounds. This enables you to engage in so-called “3-ball betting”, where you can bet on who will achieve the best score out of your chosen threesome over the course of 18 holes.
• Place Betting: You can also wager on particular players to place in the top five, 10 or 20 at the US Open. This is popular given the quality and size of the competing field, although you’ll generally access relatively short odds on the world’s best players. Consistent performers such as Scheffler, McIlroy and Colin Morikawa are popular picks in this market.