Our Betting Guide to the French Open Men’s Singles

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, March 1, 2024

May will see the 128th edition of the French Open, which is the second of four annual Grand Slam tournaments in the sport of tennis. Along with the Wimbledon Championships, this is widely considered to be the most difficult major to win, as it’s played on clay and a surface that always creates significant topspin.

This years’ tournament could also be one of the most open in living memory, with 14-time champion Rafa Nadal struggling with injury and the imperious Novak Djokovic struggling for form. But will one of these old-timers produce another slither of history in Paris, or can one of the sport’s young guns claim their maiden title here?

When is the French Open and What is the Format?

As usual, the French Open will be held at Roland Garros in Paris. The 2024 iteration is also set to run between Sunday, May 26th and Sunday, June 9th, with the men’s singles final taking place on the final day of the tournament.

This two-week tournament will feature a familiar format in 2024 too. More specifically, 128 male players will participate in the opening round of fixtures including 32 seeds. The draw is structured to ensure that the seeded players remain segregated and kept apart until later in the tournament, with the world number one and two starting at opposite ends.

There are seven rounds in total (including the final), with each match in the men’s singles contested as a best-of-five-sets encounter. After four rounds of action, the eight remaining players will progress to the quarterfinals, with the semis and the showpiece final taking place towards the end of the second week.

The French Open – A Brief History

As we’ve touched on, 2024 will see the 128th iteration of the French Open, although the competition was actually inaugurated in 1891 and 133 years ago. The initial tournament was only open to tennis players who were members of French clubs, with H. Briggs established as the first ever winner after defeating P. Baigneres in straight sets.

The first women’s single tournament was held in 1897. In 1925, the French Championships (as they were known back then) were opened to all amateurs, and it was at this stage that the tournament gained recognition from the International Lawn Tennis Federation. Frenchman Henri Cochet was the competition’s most successful player around this time, winning four titles between 1926 and 1932.

At the beginning of the Open Era in 1968, the French Championships became the very first Grand Slam to go fully ‘open’. This means that it allowed both amateurs and professionals to compete, ushering in the modern age of tennis and the most competitive tournaments in the sport’s rich history.

Since the advent of the French Open, there have been a number of notable player accomplishments. The legendary Björn Borg won six French Open titles between 1974 and 1981, including four consecutive triumphs in 1978, 1979, 1980 and 1981. Mats Wilander and Ivan Lendl both won three titles in the 1980s too, but the tournament was relatively open through the 1990s.

However, the noughties saw the emergence of Rafa Nadal, who won his maiden French Open at the tender age of 18 in 2005. This came after he won 24 consecutive singles matches on clay that year, while his victory in the 2005 final over Mariano Puerta saw him become the first player to win the tournament on his debut since Wilander.

This was the first of nine French Open wins in just 10 years through 2014, while five further triumphs in just six years between 2017 and 2022 have taken his tally to an incredible 14. This achievement earmarks Nadal as the greatest French Open player of all time, and the most successful clay court practitioner that the world has ever seen.

Who are the 2024 French Open Favourites?

With the start of the 2024 French Open drawing ever closer, sportsbooks are already starting to publish their outright odds. However, the legendary Nadal continues to struggle with form and fitness ahead of the competition, while three-time winner Novak Djokovic has also endured a frustrating 2024. Here’s our take on the pre-tournament favourites and their credentials.

Carlos Alcaraz

20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz is the heir apparent to Rafa Nadal, while he already has two Grand Slam titles to his name (at the US Open and Wimbledon). He also reached the last four of the French Open in 2023 and set up a mouthwatering clash with Novak Djokovic, only for cramp and stamina issues to contribute to a comfortable win for the Serb.

Although his form has stuttered slightly since his epic win over the same player in the 2023 Wimbledon final, he’s still ranked third in the world and has a game that’s well suited to clay. More specifically, he has an aggressive baseline style and generates significant topspin on his forehand, while his stamina and athleticism make him an exceptional defensive player.

He certainly performed well during the 2023 clay court season, retaining his crown at the Barcelona Open without dropping a set. He also won at the Madrid Open, underling his credentials as one of the world’s best clay court players. This, coupled with the issues surrounding Nadal and Djokovic, makes Alcaraz a justified favourite ahead of the 2024 tournament.

Jannik Sinner

World number two Jannik Sinner has enjoyed a meteoric rise in 2024 and will undoubtedly start the French Open as the most in-form player. To this end, he won his first Grand Slam at the Australian Open in January, earning a statement victory over Djokovic in the semi-finals before coming from two sets down to defeat Daniil Medvedev in the final.

He won 19 successive matches from the beginning of 2024 (Alcaraz ended this streak in the last four of the BNP Paribas Open). Overall, he has won 25 matches and lost just twice in 2024, winning three titles in total including the Miami Open. This was Sinner’s second Master’s 1000 title, and it propelled him above Alcaraz and into second in the world rankings.

Sinner and Alcaraz certainly enjoy a burgeoning rivalry, having faced off eight times in their careers and shared four wins apiece. The most notable encounters include Alcaraz’s 2022 US Open quarter final win after saving match points, and the Spaniard’s victory at this year’s Miami Open. Regardless, Sinner is a leading contender at Roland Garros and the second favourite with many bookmakers.

Novak Djokovic

There are signs that 24-time Grand Slam winner Djokovic is starting to slow down slightly, having lost to Alcaraz in five sets in the 2023 Wimbledon final and Sinner in the last four at Melbourne in January. He has already lost four times this winner, while winning just 73.3% of his matches (his career win-rate is an incredibly 83.5%).

Since his defeat in the Aussie Open, Djokovic has been defeated both at Indian Wells and the Monte-Carlo Masters (he withdrew from the Miami Open with an injury). He lost to lucky loser and the 123-ranked player Luca Nardi in the third round at Indian Wells, with this the lowest ever ranked opponent to beat Djokovic in any Master’s 1000 or Grand Slam event.

His defeat to Casper Rudd in the semi-finals of the Monte-Carlo Masters was more respectable, but he’s struggling to find his best form ahead of the French Open. However, he remains the ultimate big-tournament player and will have a favourable draw thanks to his number one ranking and may believe he’s still the man to beat at Roland Garros.

Rafa Nadal

Nadal’s injury struggles have blighted his career, despite his incredible tally of 22 majors and 14 French Open titles. However, his physical ailments caught up him in 2023, as the 37-year-old missed much of the season and saw him drop out of the world’s top 100 for the first time in 20 years.

He did return at the beginning of 2024, reaching the last eight of the Brisbane International event before squandering match points and succumbing to Jordan Thompson. He then sustained another muscle injury that forced him to miss the US Open and didn’t compete for another three months as he embarked on a recovery.

Upon his return at Barcelona, Nadal was defeated in the second round by Alex de Minaur. Although he was said to be encouraged by his performances and physical state and was continuing to build towards Roland Garros, he faces an uphill struggle to be competitive at an event that he has dominated for nearly two decades.

French Open Betting Markets

If you’re going to wager on the French Open in 2024, there are plenty of betting markets for you to target. These can vary significantly in terms of the available odds and your potential returns, but you’ll need to understand them in detail before making your selections. Here are some of the most popular French Open betting markets!

• The Outright Market: We’ve already reviewed the early favourites and most likely winners, with Alcaraz the pre-tournament favourite at a price of 9/5. However, Djokovic will tempt many with his average odds of 3/1, while the in-form Sinner can be backed as high as 9/2 to win his second Slam of the year. Regardless of which player you choose to back, we’d recommend betting early and decisively ahead of the French Open, as this unlocks the best value prices before they start to shorten.
• Match Betting: 128 players compete in the French Open, so there’s a large number of matches scheduled over the course of this two-week tournament. This affords you ample opportunity for match betting, with the opening three rounds often seeing mismatches as the top seeds make their way through the draw. This isn’t always the case, of course, but such matches enable you build accumulators that feature a number of short price favourites. The odds of each pick will then be multiplied to create significantly higher returns.
• Handicap or Spread Betting: During the early rounds of the French Open, you may also want to engage in handicap or spread betting on a particular player. In this instance, you’ll wager on how many more games one player will win than their rivals, with the main challenging being to select the right winning margin based on the available betting lines. For example, you may pick Alcaraz to win +6.5 more games than a lower-ranked opponent, whereas you may reduce the spread to +2.5 games in a contest against Djokovic or Sinner. Match and market analysis is key here, while you’ll need to leverage this market as sparingly as possible.

How to Read Tennis Betting Odds

In the UK, you’ll most likely encounter fractional odds when engaging in tennis betting. This format features two numbers separated by a slash, with the first digit relaying how much you can expect to win in relation to the second (which describes your stake). So, if you back Djokovic to win outright at a price of 3/1, you’ll bank a profit of £3 for every £1 wagered successfully.

This total is exclusive of your original stake, so you’d receive £4 back in your account if Djokovic won and you wagered £1. If you increased your winning stake to £10, you’ll win £30 in pure profit and receive £40 back including your initial stake amount. This odds format is one of the easiest to read, while it can also be seamlessly converted into decimal odds.

You can also use odds to calculate the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring. This enables you to evaluate published odds and their value proposition, while further analysis of other variables will also make it possible to identify the best value wagers and betting lines.