Our Betting Guide to the 2023 Rugby World Cup
Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, August 19, 2022
At the end of May, France saw sweeping celebrations to mark the 100-day countdown to the 2023 Rugby World Cup, which will kick off in Saint-Denis on September 8th. Many are predicting that this will be the most popular and widely watched tournament in RWC history, with almost 2.5 million tickets already sold to date and around 600,000 travelling fans expected to attend.
So, when champions South Africa performed the symbolic task of handing the Webb Ellis Cup to France, thoughts began to turn to the 2023 iteration of the World Cup and the most likely winners. This is certainly likely to be a keenly contested tournament, with hosts France, New Zealand and Ireland all being widely tipped to do well.
In this comprehensive betting guide, we’ll take a closer look at the tournament and the very latest ante post odds, while appraising the most rewarding wagering markets and asking how you can leverage these to your advantage.
When is the Rugby World Cup in 2023?
As we’ve already touched on, the 2023 RWC will kick off at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis on September 8th, when the hosts will entertain the mighty All Blacks (we’ll touch more on this encounter later in the guide). The tournament will then run for seven weeks, before concluding with the showpiece final on October 28th.
Usually, the RWC only lasts for six weeks, and originally it looked as though the 2023 renewal would be no exception to this rule. However, World Rugby extended the tournament by a further week in February 2021, in order to improve player welfare and ensure that teams had at least five days’ rest before all matches.
Once again, a total of 20 teams will compete for the 2023 World Cup, including hosts France, defending champions South Africa and all of the home nations. This number includes Chile, who will make their debut in the tournament, while Portugal will also make a long awaited return after first appearance way back in the 2007 iteration.
Interestingly, 2023 will see France host the RWC for the third time, having previously done so in 2007 and 1991 (when they shared hosting duties with England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales). As hosts, France have understandably been made the ante post favourites for the tournament, but we’ll take a closer look at the pricing a little later on.
The 2023 RWC Format
The 20 teams have been organised into four pools comprising five teams each, with every competitor seeded according to their ranking and previous World Cup performances. For example, ‘Band A’ featured the world’s four highest ranked teams at the time of the draw, including England, South Africa, New Zealand and Wales. Each of these teams was then drawn into a pool to ensure they remained separated.
Interestingly, France found themselves in Band B, which is why the hosts have found themselves drawn in a challenging Pool A with the All Blacks and Band C side Italy. The final two bands comprise qualifiers and teams from Oceania, Europe, Asia and the Americas, which this years include Namibia, Chile, Romania and Portgual (among others).
Each team will play four games in their respective pools, with the top two eventually progressing to the quarterfinals. The tournament will then progress in a typical knockout format, with the last eight matches taking place between October 14th and 15th and the two last four games being held in Saint-Denis on October 20th and October 21st.
The tournament will then conclude firstly with a third-place playoff or ‘Bronze final’ on October 27th at the Stade de France, with this seeing the two losing semi-finalists go head-to-head. The following day, the 2023 RWC comes to an end with the showpiece final, in which the two remaining sides will bid for the ultimate glory.
The RWC 2023 Ante Post Odds – What are the Best Value Bets?
The ante post odds have already been published, with prices continuing to change in line with the form and performances of the competing sides. The current odds certainly make for interesting reading, with some prices offering considerably more value than others. Here’s our take on the best value bets and what sets these apart from the alternatives!
#1. France – The Most Likely Winners at 4.00
Not only are France the host nation in 2023, but they’ll also arrive at the tournament in outstanding form. After all, the side have won 17 of their past 18 tests dating back to November 2021, with the only recent blot on their copybook being a decisive 32-19 defeat to Ireland at the Aviva Stadium back in February.
This ultimately saw the French finish second in the 2023 Six Nations and lose the title that they’d won during the previous year, but this frustrating blip aside, the French has remained remarkably consistent in the last two years while beating teams such as England, Australia, South Africa and even New Zealand.
Of course, the French also boast some incredible individual quality, not least in the form of world class scrum half Antoine Dupont. Widely regarded as one of the best players of all-time, Dupot helps to make the French side tick and will relish playing in front of his home fans on the biggest of international stages.
Interestingly, only three iterations of the previous nine Rugby World Cups have seen the host nation win, namely New Zealand in 1987, South Africa in 1995 and the All Blacks again in 2011. However, France are well-placed to buck this trend, while their current ante post price of 4.00 offers excellent value (although it’s liable to drift ahead of the tournament).
#2. Ireland – The Best Value Wager at 5.00
Many will be surprised to note that Ireland are only third favourites to win their inaugural World Cup in 2023, with the ‘Wolfhounds’ currently ranked number one in the world ahead of both France and New Zealand. They also won this years’ Six Nations with a clean sweep of victories, including the aforementioned 32-19 thrashing of Les Bleus in February.
Ireland are also currently embarked on an 11-game winning streak overall, with this run including confident victories over England, Scotland, South Africa and Australia.
The sequence also features two superb victories over New Zealand, which were both achieved away from home as part of Ireland’s summer tour in 2022. The second of these saw the Irish prevail 32-22 in a thrilling, see-saw encounter, with this delivering Andy Farrell’s men their first ever series triumph in NZ.
Ultimately, many pundits are backing Ireland to win in 2023, despite their relative lack of historical pedigree in the tournament. They certainly represent the best value bet at average odds of 5.00, but once again, I’d recommend wagering sooner rather than later and before the price starts to shorten.
#3. New Zealand – The Safe Haven Bet at 4.00
While the All Blacks remain the team most synomnymous with world rugby, they’ve endured a mixed run of form by their own high standards in recent times. In fact, the team lost six of the 10 tests they contested between October 2021 and August 2022, with this sequence including three defeats to Ireland and further losses to France and South Africa.
More recently, the All Blacks’ form has improved markedly, following the nadir of a 25-18 home defeat to Argentina on August 27th, 2022.
They earned revenge in the return match against the Pumas, thrashing them 53-3 in September, before earning two excellent wins over bitter rivals Australia and edging Japan in an international friendly. Victories against Wales and Scotland followed, although a 25-25 draw with a transitional England side last time out reinforced New Zealand’s relative vulnerability ahead of the RWC.
However, NZ remain the ultimate big game team, while their innate abilty to perform on the big stage and find their form when they need it the most could prove invaluable. It certainly identified them as potential winners of the tournament, and their opening day clash with France may prove seminal.
The Best RWC 2023 Betting Markets and How to Leverage Them
These outright wagers aside, there are plenty of RWC betting markets that you can access both ahead of and during the tournament. Navigating these can be challenging, but fortunately some markets are more popular than others and make it slightly easier for you to minimise losses and sustain a return. So, here are some viable betting markets and how to successfully leverage them!
Match Betting – Consider Handicap Wagering
Beyond outright betting, match wagering is the single most popular RWC market. This straightforwad wager enables you to bet on the winner of each individual pool or knockout game, while the fact that draws are statistically rare in the sport make this is as close to an even money wager as you can imagine.
While this market often offers minimal value, the sheer number of games during RWC 23 enables you to pursue incremental returns without overly increasing your risk. This is especially true in the pool stage, where there will be a number of mismatches and an opportunity to significantly increaes your stake while backing short price favourites.
This is a way of creating value in match betting, while respecting the often delicate balance between risk and reward. Similarly, you should consider handicap betting during the pool stages, as this will enable you to apply a virtual deficit to a short price favourite and back them to win at enhanced odds.
For example, let’s say that you want to back on overwhelming favourites New Zealand to beat minnows Namibia in their Pool A clash on September 15th. In this instance, you could apply a handicap of -13.5 to NZ, creating a scenario where they’ll have to win by 14 points or more for the bet to come in. You’ll subsequently access longer odds without overly compromising your chances of winning, which should be your goal when engaging in any form of match betting.
Over / Under Betting Relating to Total Points Scored
So-called ‘totals’ betting is also popular in Rugby Union and tournaments such as the World Cup, with this market commonly requiring you to wager on the total number of points that will be scored during a particular game.
In this market, sportsbooks will set one or more theoretical points tallys for each listed game, depending on the nature of the contest and two competing sides. Each outcome will then be ascribed odds, and you’ll have to wager on whether you think the actual number of points scored will be over or under your selected threshold.
This is a great market for those of you with knowledge of the sport and competing sides, while it also enables you to pursue incremental returns across a large number of RWC matches. Once again, we’d argue that mismatches offer an opportunity to engage in total betting, as you can wager on there being a large amounts of points scored given the dominance of one side of their opponents.
However, you’ll have to be selective when engaging in totals betting, as it can be incredibly hard to accurately predict how many points or tries will be scored in a game. It’s also worth factoring in the prevailing conditions, as rain or high wind can make free-flowing rugby difficult and may lead to a tactical, lower-scoring game.
Winning Marigin Betting – More Risk But Greater Reward
Similar to handicap betting, you can also wager on the final winning margin in a particular game. In this case, you’ll wager that one team will win by a specified number of points, but the need for greater precision in this market creates much higher odds (and potential returns) but forces you to take increased risk.
To highlight this, you may find that NZ are priced as low as 1.50 to win a particular game with a -5 handicap, but as high as 5.50 to prevail in the same match by a margin of between six or 10 points. The reason for this is simple; as there’s a much more stringent cap in place when betting on winning margin, whereas the same is not true with handicap betting.
However, this is an excellent betting market for knowledgable rugby fans with a healthy appetite for risk, although we’d recommend staking only nominal amounts of cash to help you mitigate risk and still chase healthy returns.