Our Betting Guide to the 2023 Cricket World Cup

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, October 27, 2023

The ICC Cricket World Cup remains the showpiece occasion for limited overs cricket, and one that takes place every four years. The 2023 iteration is also set to be one of the most eagerly anticipated for years, as host nation India look to shed their reputation as chokers in the world stage and lift the trophy for the first time in 12 years.

However, England are also hotly tipped to perform well and potentially regain the title they won dramatically in 2019, after Ben Stokes carried the Three Lions to a narrow win in front of a frenzied Lords crowd. Australia and Pakistan will also fancy their chances, so this could be one of the most unpredictable tournaments for years. In this comprehensive cricket betting guide, we’ll take a closer look at the 2023 World Cup, while paying particular to the very latest odds and the tournament’s primary betting markets.

The ICC Cricket World Cup – An Introduction

While test cricket can trace its official roots back to 1877, this format used to be the preserve of England, Australia and the coveted ‘Ashes’. However, a growing number of countries started to play the game more consistently and at a professional level at the beginning of the 20th century, with the first multilateral competition soon following in the form of the 1912 Triangular Tournament (which featured England, Australia and South Africa).

By the early 1960s, county cricket teams in England also began playing a shortened version of cricket, in order to appeal to younger and less seasoned fans. This format introduced games of 50 or 60 overs long, which were completed within the day and far more likely to deliver decisive results and outcomes.

This spawned the ‘Midland Knockout Cup’ in 1962, which became the Gillette Cup the following year and embraced more teams as it became increasingly popular. This resulted in a national league and competition called the Sunday League by 1969, while the inaugural One Day international took placed between England and Australia two years later following a rain-aborted Test match between the two nations.

From here, the popularity of the format grew exponentially, causing the ICC to consider a global competition. The Men’s Cricket World Cup was then first held in 1975 in England, with a dominant West Indies side claiming the inaugural tournament. They also won the second tournament iteration four years later, while Australia have since become the most successful One Day international side with five triumphs in total (including three consecutive wins between 1999 and 2007).

As we’ve already touched on, England are the defending world champions, having won a first and long-overdue title in 2019 as the host nation. They’re also among the favourites to win again and regain their crown on the subcontinent, with only two other sides (West Indies and Australia) having previously achieved this objective.

The 2023 Cricket World Cup Format

The 2023 tournament will run from October 5th until November 19th, while the format will see all 10 competing sides initially play against one another in a round-robin group. After each side has completed their nine matches, the top four will progress to the knockout stage, featuring two semi-finals and a showpiece final at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad.

The group stage concludes with India’s final game against the Netherlands on November 12th, which is set to be hosted at the M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bangalore. There’s then a three-day break before the group winners take on the fourth placed side in the first semi-final at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai, while the teams that finish second and third will do battle on November 16th at Eden Gardens in Kolkata.

The final will then take place on November 19th and the winner of the 13th cricket World Cup will be crowned. Unlike similar sporting events such as the Rugby World Cup and FIFA World Cup in football, there’s no match to determine which of the losing semi-finalists will finish third and fourth respectively.

The 2023 Cricket World Cup – The Key Contenders and Latest Odds

Now that we’ve learned a little more about the history of the ICC Cricket World Cup, it’s important to look ahead to the 2023 iteration and the most likely winners. Below, we’ve previewed three of the current bookmakers’ favourites, while appraising exactly what sets them apart from their rival competitors.

India – The 2/1 Favourites

Despite their reputation as one of the best and most formative cricketing nations, India have only won two previous World Cups (in 1983 and 2011). However, their status as host nation this time around affords them a huge competitive edge (especially given the precise and challenging nature of the conditions in the subcontinent), and they’ve been established as the ante post favourites with an average price of 2/1.

India also boasts one of the deepest and most talented squads in the world, with a slew of batsmen who have the capacity to dominate and a varied bowling attack that can dismantle even the most accomplished outfits. This was in evidence during the recent Asia Cup final, where India’s bowlers routed a previously impressive Sri Lankan side for just 50.

The main concern revolves around the team’s psychological baggage. After all, they slumped to a shock defeat against New Zealand in the 2019 semi-final, after dominating the group stage. They also experienced a similar fate and batting collapse at the same stage in 2015, as Australia defeated them to end their reign as world champions.

However, there’s no doubt that India are the clear favourites if we go by talent and squad depth alone, while stroke maker and top order batsman Shubman Gill likely to lead his team’s charge. After all, he’ll head into the World Cup with an astounding average of 66 (and accompanying strike rate of 103) in the 35 ODIs he has competed in.

England – The 10/3 Value Bets

England remain a true force of nature in this format of the game, and they undoubtedly offer value in the current marketplace at an average price of 10/3 to retain the World Cup. However, it’s also apparent that this tournament will represent the final fling for what has been a stellar generation of limited overs’ cricketers, while some of the stars of 2019 (including Jason Roy) having even missed out on selection this time around.

To put this into perspective, England have selected the oldest squad in India (along with New Zealand), while they also arrive on the subcontinent as only the world’s fifth ranked team (they were the undisputed number one side in 2019). The absence of several key bowlers is also a key for concern, with paceman Jofra Archer only fit enough to travel as a reserve and Ben Stokes unable to bowl due to a persistent knee injury.

However, coach Matthew Mott is one of the best in the ODI format, having won two of his last four World Cups (ODI and T20) with the Aussie women’s side and England’s men. He’s also a highly respected coach with a progressive and innovative edge, while his focus on psychology and positivity could afford his charges a marked edge in India.

Then there’s the brilliant Dawid Malan, who remains England’s best ODI batsman and one of the most consistent run scorers in the world. He also boasts an incredible career record with an average of 61 and a strike rate of 96, which places him among the best batsmen ever to lace up their gloves in limited overs cricket. However, at the grand old age of 36, he personifies one of the main challenges facing this English side in 2023.

Australia – The 9/2 Outside Bet

We’ve already touched on the Aussies’ record in the ICC Cricket World Cup, with the team having won five tournaments in total and four of the previous six. Their triumph in 2015 also came despite the side not being particularly fancied by pundits or bookies alike, which highlights their innate ability to raise their collective game and reserve their best for the business end of tournaments.

So, although the side has endured bruising defeats to India and South Africa in recent times and is only priced at 9/2 to win the 2023 World Cup, they retain a psychological edge and enduring pedigree that makes them perennially tough to beat in any major tournament. Their opening group game against India in Chennai on October 8th could also prove key, as they look to strike an early psychological blow.

The Aussies also retain a formidable top order, incredible batting depth and one of the worlds’ premier ODI pace bowlers in Mitchell Starc (the latter of whom was included in the 2019 ‘Team of the Tournament’ having taken a competition high 27 wickets in 10 innings at an average of just 18.59).

However, the team lacks bowling depth overall, while the absence of seasoned spinner Ashton Agar has left Adam Zampa as the only frontline slow bowler in the squad. This puts an undue burden on the off-spinning all-rounder Glenn Maxwell, while it could prove fatal in Indian conditions where spin bowling generally dominates.

The Best Cricket World Cup Betting Markets and Tips

No guide of this type would be complete with a detailed exploration of the best and most popular betting markets ahead of the 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup. So, in the final section of this betting guide, we’ll look at the three most popular betting markets while offering some advice on how to leverage these successfully!

#1. Outright Betting

Betting on the outright winner of the 2023 Cricket World Cup remains the single most popular wagering market, as this is a relatively simple wager type that offers clarity and superior value. This is especially true when you leverage ante post prices as early as possible, as odds tend to drift and shorten as the tournament draws closer or gets underway.

Our Tip – Use Odds to Estimate Return and Implied Probability

When dealing with fractional odds, these feature two numbers separated by a slash and indicate how much you may win in relation to your stake. So, if you successfully bet £5 on India to win at odds of 2/1, you can bank a profit of £10 and your original £5 stake back for a total haul of £15. Understanding this is key if you’re to read odds successfully and identify the best value prices.

Odds can also be used to display the implied probability of an outcome occurring. Using the equation ‘(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability’ and the same example of backing India to win the 2023 World Cup, we simply divide the value of one by team’s decimal odds of 3.00, before multiplying this by 100 to create an implied winning probability of 33%. This is a clear indicator of value and should help you to determine your final stake amount.

#2. Match Betting

In the case of match betting, you’ll wager on the winners of individual group and knockout games. Given the statistical unlikelihood of a tie in cricket, this is largely an even money marketplace, and one that can offer genuine value and decent returns if you’re a knowledgeable punter. There are also ample opportunities for match betting during the 2023 Cricket World Cup.

Our Tip – Consider Handicapping and Accumulator Bets

Value can occasionally be hard to find when match betting, as the best wagers back short price favourites to prevail over underdogs. However, you can create optimal value by engaging in handicap and accumulator betting, which should ideally maximise your potential returns without overly compromising the level of risk involved. Handicap wagers require you put the favourite at a strategic points disadvantage, whereas ‘acca’ bets combine multiple selections in a single wager at an increased price!

#3. Top Runner Scorer / Wicket Taker

Individual player markets are also incredibly popular when wagering on the Cricket World Cup, especially outright niches such as the top run scorer and wicket taker during the tournament. Obviously, there are numerous contenders in play here, so the market typically carries enhanced odds and remains excellent from the perspective of ante post betting.

Our Tip – Include Team and Player Form in Your Considerations

If you are going to bet on the best performing batsmen and bowlers at the 2023 Cricket World Cup, you cannot do so effectively without factoring in team form and quality. After all, the players who represent the best teams will typically have the best foundation from which to operate, whether they’re looking to accumulate runs or defend decent totals while bowling. Even on a fundamental level, you should prioritise players who represent the best sides as these entities are most likely to reach the latter stages of the tournament.