How to Bet on the NFL – A Comprehensive Guide

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, April 5, 2024

Betting on the NFL is one of the most popular pastimes around, particularly in the US. Incredibly, an estimated 68 million North American adults wagered $23.1 billion on the Super Bowl alone in 2024, while the NFL regular season also generates a high volume of wagers during each campaign.

Even UK punters can bet freely on the NFL and Super Bowl. In fact, you’ll find a diverse selection of NFL markets and betting lines at sportsbooks from across the globe, while brands often build odds boosts and same-game parlay (SGP) promotions around American football matches. But how can you bet successfully on the NFL?

Get Started by Reading NFL Betting Moneylines

We’re going to explore the most popular NFL betting markets a little later in the guide, but there’s no doubt that “moneylines” represent the most straightforward and in-demand betting market. But what is a moneyline? Well, this is a bet that’s placed on one of two competing franchises to win a particular match, based on your analysis of each side, the odds and their implied probability values.

Moneylines are particularly popular in NFL betting due to the low incidence of draws in the competition. Since the introduction of overtime during regular season games in 1974, there have been just 29 ties, which is a statistically insignificant number and suggests that there are only two realistic outcomes in NFL matches.

Moneylines are usually priced in decimal odds at UK bookmakers. Decimal odds feature single numbers to two decimal places, with this figure relaying how much you’ll win for every £1 wagered successfully (inclusive of your stake). For context, let’s take a look at an NFL clash between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills at the former’s Ford Field stadium.

In this instance, the Lions are fancied by the bookies and priced at 1.67 to prevail. Conversely, the Buffalo Bills can be backed to triumph at around 2.25, so they’re the slight betting underdogs here. So, if you stake £10 on the Lions and they subsequently prevail, you’ll bank a £16.70 return. However, if you successfully wager the same amount on the Bulls, you’ll add £22.50 to your sportsbook balance.

What do the Odds Tell Us About Implied Probability?

Obviously, you can win more with a successful stake on the Bills in this instance. However, the price here is higher because the Bills have a statistically lower chance of defeating their opponents. What’s more, you can use the odds to calculate the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring, while there’s even a dedicated formula for this calculation:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

Using the example above, the odds imply a 59.88% probability of a victory for the Lions. Conversely, there’s just a 44.44% chance of the Bills winning on the road, while this difference can largely be attributed to the current NFL Power Rankings and impact of home field advantage (we’ll touch more on this later in the guide).

By calculating the implied probability of individual outcomes, you can make more informed picks during a typical NFL season. You can also create optimal unit bets for each individual line, while using additional systems and factors to inform this decision. This calculation is synonymous with value and arbitrage betting too.

Value betting is a strategy that identifies outcomes where the likelihood of a particular outcome is higher than the published odds suggest. Arbitrage betting opportunities only occur when the combined implied probability values of two opposing outcomes amount to less than 100%, whether you wager on the NFL or an alternative competition.

What About Alternative Odds Formats?

Most sportsbooks also have odds widgets on their interface. This will enable you to toggle between different odds formats: namely, decimal, American and fractional. Of course, American odds are synonymous with the NFL, but how do you read betting lines in such instances? Here’s a brief explanation!

American Odds

American odds may also be described as “plus-minus” betting. In this format, outcomes will be priced using three-digit numbers, which are accompanied by either a “plus” or “minus” sign. The former indicates a betting underdog, with the corresponding number highlighting how much you’ll win for every £100 wagered. The minus sign reveals a betting favourite, while the corresponding number relays how much you’ll need to stake to win £100.

If we use the same example as previously, a simple conversion shows us that the Detroit Lions are priced at –150 to win. So, you’ll need to stake £150 to bank a $100 return in this instance. Alternatively, the Buffalo Bills can be backed at American odds of +125, so a £100 stake will add £125 to your account balance.

Fractional Odds

In the case of fractional odds, you’ll see two numbers that are separated by a single slash. In this format, the first number tells you how much you can win in relation to the latter (which represents your stake amount). This format differs from decimal odds, as the amount you can win in relation to your stake is calculated exclusive of your unit bet.

Using the aforementioned example, the Lions are priced at 4/6 in the win market. So, a successful £10 stake will deliver a profit of £6.67 and total return of £16.67 including your returned unit bet. Conversely, the Bills are priced at 5/4 to triumph, so a win for Sean McDermott’s team will deliver you a profit of £12.50 and total return of £22.50.

NFL Betting Markets

In addition to moneylines, you’ll find a huge selection of alternative NFL betting lines available online. Some of these are more popular than others, of course, particularly those that are linked to scoring and the eventual winning margin in a specific match. Here’s our breakdown of these markets and how they function.

• Totals Betting: In the case of totals betting, sportsbooks will create various betting lines pertaining to how many points will be scored during a game. After analysing the relevant form and performance statistics of the competing sides, you’ll pick one of these betting lines before wagering whether the actual total will be over or under this number. This type of line will see sportsbooks use “half points”, creating an even money market where there are only two potential outcomes.
• Point Spread Betting: Spread betting (or handicapping) is another even money market that enables you create value when wagering on the NFL. This will require you to attribute a virtual deficit to a heavy betting favourite, and your chosen team will have to “beat the spread” and win by the necessary margin for the wager to be successful. For example, if you back the Lions to defeat the Bills with a –7.5-point handicap at enhanced odds, Dan Campbell’s charges will have to win by a margin of eight points or more.
• Winning Margin Betting: This is similar to point spread betting, although picking a winning margin typically introduces higher odds and lower implied probability values. In this case, you’ll pick both a winning team and the margin that they’ll ultimately prevail by, usually within a range that’s laid out by the sportsbook (typically between one and six points). Once again, you can inform your picks through team, form and market analysis, but this type of betting undoubtedly carries a higher level of risk.
• Outright and Futures Betting: Outright markets allow you to pick the winner of the NFL or Super Bowl. This simple wager type often enables you to wager at enhanced odds, thanks largely to the number of competing teams and potential winners. Betting early in this market may also unlock more competitive pricing. You can also back teams to win their respective Conference or reach the playoffs each season. Popular player outrights include picking the ‘Coach of the Year’ and the regular season MVP (Most Valuable Player).
• Prop Bets: You can also access a diverse selection of team and player props pertaining to the NFL. These unlock potentially hundreds of markets and micro bets, which can be placed on outcomes that don’t directly determine the final outcome in matches. Player props are usually linked to specific performance metrics, such as the most punts, points scored and passing yards completed. This type of market is especially popular during the course of live or in-play betting, while it can unlock numerous opportunities to wager on NFL games.

Our NFL Betting Tips

Now that you know how to read NFL betting lines across a broad range of markets, you can start wagering on individual matches and outcomes. But what steps can you take to bet smartly and make the most of your bankroll? Here are some tips and insights to help you on your way!

• Carry Out the Right Research: While everyone understands the importance of researching matches and competing teams before wagering real money, identifying the right data sets is also key. Recent form is always important, of course, while you should distinguish between the relevant home and away form for each side. Other datasets may also be relevant when wagering on specific markets, such as the number of rushing yards completed and total passing yards. In addition to the aforementioned NFL Power Rankings, the NFL.com resource is an excellent resource for bettors.
• Factor in Home Field Advantage: We’ve already spoken about home field advantage, which is prevalent across most team sports. However, its impact varies from one sport to another, and has averaged out at around 57.6% in the NFL during recent season. After a recent dip, it was estimated at 56.7% in the 2023 regular season, and it’s important to factor this into your picks. Remember, sportsbooks may also factor in home field advantage and form into their odds calculations and pricing.
• Seek Out Opportunities for Value Betting: There are inherent links between value and arbitrage betting, with the underlying goal of both being to identify favourable discrepancies between the published odds and their implied probability values. You can identify favourable betting opportunities of this type by calculating cumulative implied probability values in a particular match (bearing in mind that the draw is incredibly rare in the NFL), while also comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks.
• Utilise Free Bet Offers: Whether you want to engage in value or arbitrage betting or not, the strategic use of free bet offers and bonuses can help to optimise (and in some instances) guarantee profits. Sportsbooks regularly offer free bet offers to both new and existing players, some of which may be tailored towards NFL matches and markets. Just remember to analyse the respective terms and conditions associated with each free bet, to ensure that its wagering requirements are affordable and within your financial means.
• Target Even Money Markets: Due to the unlikeliness of drawn matches in the NFL, moneylines are incredibly popular. However, you can also create value through even money markets such as point spreads and totals, where you can also calculate the implied probability of specific outcomes occurring. You can even combine multiple even money markets in a single wager to boost returns further, although this type of wager should be used sparingly and in accordance with your wider research.
• Leverage Point Spread Bets Where Possible: If we drill down a little deeper into this, we can see that NFL matches are typically highly competitive and difficult to call. Similarly, sportsbooks are known to boast a 50.3% return when covering the spread in NFL matches, so point spread betting offers value in this competition. Once again, you can analyse relevant performance datasets and odds to identify the best value lines, and this wager type should play a central role in your wider wagering strategy.