Handicap Horse Racing – How to Pick Winners
Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, February 23, 2024
If you’re a horse racing betting fan, you’ll probably be familiar with so-called handicap races and events. After all, handicap races account for around 60% of all events in the UK, while iconic races like the Aintree Grand National are ran under handicap rules. Globally, events such as the Melbourne Cup are also prominent handicap races.
The purpose of handicap racing is to create more evenly matched fields and equalise the chances of each runner winning. Weights are allocated to horses based on a number of factors (we’ll discuss these below), but how are handicaps determined and what steps can you take to pick winners? Let’s get into it!
What is a Handicap Race?
Let’s start with the basics: a handicap race is a horse racing event that compels runners to carry variable and additional weight in order to ensure a more competitive run. Each horse’s handicap is set objectively based on their age, performance and form, while it may also be adjusted depending on the grade of each race and quality of competing runners.
The principle behind handicap racing is that the addition of weights will impact the speed at which each individual horse races. This is particularly true in National Hunt races or over specific distances, with the highest rated horse allocated the highest or maximum weight burden. This sets the bar that determines allocations for every competing runner, with subsequent horses carrying one pound less for every point that their official rating is lower.
So, if the top-rated horse is afforded a handicap score (or mark) of 85 in a flat race, he may carry the maximum weight burden of 9st 10lbs. If the next highest-rated runner has a score of 84, he’ll carry a single pound less (9st 9lbs). At the other end of the spectrum, there may be a horse with a rating of just 70, and in this instance, he’ll carry a whopping 15lbs less and 8st 8lbs in total.
But how do handicap races differ from non-handicap events? Well, while horses may still have to carry weight in such races based on factors such as penalties or a specified allowance, this isn’t required or based on their official ratings. So, you may find less even and competitive fields in certain flat races.
Getting the Handicap Mark – How are Horses Rated?
In the UK, horse racing is governed and overseen by the British Horse Racing Association (BHA). This organisation operates its own handicapping body, which rates every single horse in training and commits to regulating updating rankings based on various performance metrics.
But how exactly do horses initially earn their ‘handicap mark’? Ultimately, there are two criteria to consider in this instance, with a mark awarded depending on which occurs first. These criteria are as follows:
- When a Horse Achieves their Maiden or Novice Victory
- When a Horse Competes in Three Different Races (Without Winning)
Once they have achieved one of these milestones, they’ll be awarded a handicap mark by the BHA. They’re then free to compete in selected handicap races and events, ideally those that feature similarly rated runners. For example, a handicap race may have a participation band of between 66 and 80, and runners will typically fall within this band.
When an initial handicap mark is awarded, it’s usually calculated in accordance with a broader and more diverse range of performance metrics. For example, runners will be evaluated in part based on the quality and rating of the horses that they’ve competed against, particularly those that also have a handicap mark and in instances where they’ve won races.
Handicap marks are updated weekly and set according to the unique conditions of an upcoming race. This ensures that marks remain fair and relevant, while the fact that they’re set objectively also aids transparency and leads to much more competitive races over time.
How Does Handicapping Work in the Real World
Let’s consider a two-year-old colt who competes in flat racing. He has just completed his third race and achieved a maiden victory. He won by five lengths from his closest challenger and the second-place horse, who had entered the race with an official rating of 80.
Usually, the BHA will determine that the margin of victory will directly influence the winning horse’s official rating. More specifically, they’ll add a single increment to the rating for every length that they prevail by, based on the mark of the horse that they beat. In this instance, they defeated an 80-rated runner by five lengths, so will carry a rating of 85 into their next race.
Depending on the rating of their competitors in the next race, this will impact the weight that’s allocated to them in the next event. For example, if they participate in a race with a rating band that peaks at 85, they’ll be required to carry the maximum flat race weight of 9st 10lbs (the maximum threshold for National Hunt races and steeplechases is higher at 11st 12lbs).
However, if the band includes higher rated horses and the runner with the highest handicap mark is 90, our two-year-old colt will carry five pounds less than the maximum weight and be allocated 9st 5lbs. This is one of the primary reasons why handicaps and weight allocations vary from one race to the next.
Constantly Fluctuating Handicap Marks – How and Why do Ratings Change?
In addition to weight allocations being set depending on the grade of each race and how competing runners are rated, there are other factors that directly impact handicap marks. In fact, marks are continually adjusted and updated weekly, so it has the potential to change from one race and event to another.
But which other factors influence marks? Well, one telling factor is a horse’s previous performances, especially if they’ve embarked on a winning or losing streak. If they record successive wins, their rating will increase over time, although the precise trajectory of their mark will depend on the grade at which they competed, their margin of victory and the horses that they defeated.
If a horse loses successive races or struggles to compete at their previous level, it’s just as likely that the BHA will drop their handicap mark. However, horses may maintain their previous handicap mark or only see a nominal decline even in instances where they lose two successive races, especially if they’ve raced in tough going or performed relatively well in comparison with their rivals.
Handicaps can also be revised weekly without a horse racing at all. More specifically, their mark can be adjusted based on the subsequent performance of a runner that they’ve either defeated or lost to, which may cast their rating in a whole new light and demand a change.
Let’s say that our aforementioned two-year-old colt with a rating of 85 takes doesn’t race the week after his maiden win. However, the runner that he defeated by five lengths (who’s now rated 80) does races again and beats an 87-rated horse by the exact same margin. This may see his own rating increase to 92 and cause the BHA to re-evaluate other runners.
More specifically, the BHA may increase the official rating and handicap mark of our two-year-old colt to 97, believing that this offers a fairer reflection of their ability and recent form. They have the option not to update this horse’s rating, however, based on the numerous variables that may have influenced their rival’s victory.
How is Weight Allocated?
We’ve already touched on the maximum weight allocations for flat and National Hunt handicap races. At the same time, we’ve discussed how official ratings are determined and adjusted over time, and the way in which handicap marks may fluctuate depending on the conditions of an upcoming race.
In terms of physical allocation, the weight largely comprises the jockey and their equipment (such as googles, whip, helmets, gloves and vests). However, in order to bring the highest rated horses up to the required or maximum weight allocation, additional weights may also be strapped their saddles and distributed centrally.
Picking a Handicap Winner – The Key Considerations
Now that you understand more about handicap races and how they differ to non-handicap events, it’s time to start analysing and betting on this type of race. But how exactly do you successfully pick potential handicap winners, and what are the key considerations to keep in mind? Here are some expert tips to help you on your way!
1. Don’t Always Back the Favourite
With handicap racing, you can use the ante post odds, official rating and allocated weight to help inform your selections. However, the top-rated and lowest priced horses will carry the highest weight burden, which can prove to be a significant equaliser over the course of longer aces and when carrying the maximum allowed weight.
Favourites may also be carrying more weight than their previous outings, so it can be hard to estimate how quickly they’ll run and the quality of their performance. It should also be noted that horses in the upper and middle section may still boast consistent performance levels and carry a weight that they’re comfortable with, while they may have greater scope for improvement and offer significantly higher value.
In famous handicap races like the Ascot Stakes, it’s actually rare for the favourite or top-rated horse to prevail. In fact, between 2003 and 2023, the ante post favourite only triumphed on two occasions, while they finished as low as 14th during at least one renewal. The same is true for races like the Grand National, so the detailed analysis of all competing runners is key here.
2. Consider Outside Runners in Competitive and Large Races
On a similar note, races that have particularly large and competitive fields make it much more likely that horses in the middle section of the field will prevail. This is particularly true in races held over a long distance (such as the National), where even relative outsiders and unfancied runners towards the lower weight allocation will have a chance of winning.
It’s interesting to note that if you take a closer look at the Ascot Stakes, 78% of the competing runners boasted an official rating of 72+ after their previous win. There are often more than 20 competing runners too, creating a packed and evenly matched field where horses that carry the lowest weight can carve out a competitive advantage.
Outsiders and higher priced horses certainly offer superior value in such circumstances, although it’s important to analyse such runners and determine their likelihood of winning. This way, you can factor in other metrics and make a completely informed decision, while accounting for the variables that can impact on the outcome of handicap races.
3. Consider the Impact of Going and Race Distance
Two such variables are the distance of a particular race and the going. In terms of the former, a horse may have contested four previous races over a similar distance, acquiring a specific handicap mark in the process. However, this becomes less insightful in instances where he suddenly runs over a shorter or longer distance, while such a decision may even see his OR decline.
This trend is most evident when runners who typically compete in flat races of over one mile or more suddenly run in a sprint. This can impact performance directly as the horse may lack the speed to compete over a shorter distance. However, horses that evolve from sprints to longer races offer greater value and have more room for improvement, especially younger runners as they continue to mature.
When it comes to the going, you’ll need to understand the nature of a competing horse in addition to their handicap. For example, it’s widely accepted that fast horses and sprinters tend to perform well in good-to-firm or firm going. So, if you see a fast runner with a lower handicap mark competing in such conditions, he may offer greater value than the ante-post odds suggest.