Betting Systems – What Are They and Why Should You Care?

Posted by Harry Kane on Tuesday, February 6, 2024

The term ‘betting system’ is widely used in both casino gaming and sports wagering, as punters look to optimise their bankroll and maximise their chances of winning. There are many betting system iterations, each of which has its own unique methodology and remains synonymous with a particular game or sport.

So, choosing the right betting system for a particular application can be challenging, especially as you also have to factor in the size of your bankroll and appetite for risk. We’ll take a closer look at betting systems in this guide, while asking how you can make one work for you.

Getting Started – What Exactly is a Betting System?

When attempting to understand the term ‘betting system’, one of the main issues is that this is regularly conflated with ‘betting strategy’. However, while you may find some crossover between these two terms, they’re fundamentally different and need to be treated as such.

For example, a betting system refers to a set of rules that define how you set stakes or pick outcomes to wager on. Most commonly, a betting system will determine how you set stakes and respond to individual wins and losses, as you look to either minimise the risk of loss or optimise your potential returns when you win.

However, there are some betting systems that influence the types of wager that you place. For example, ‘matched betting’ requires you to lay a back bet at a designated betting exchange, enabling you to cover all potential outcomes in a particular match or event. The key here is to make use of free bets, which guarantee at least a nominal profit when wagering at identical odds.

This will require you to place so-called “moneyline” bets on the winner of a particular match, while it will also influence your choice of event. Due to the variable nature of betting systems, you can combine multiple examples simultaneously, in order to gain optimal control over your bankroll and wagering activity.

This is where the term ‘betting strategy’ comes into play. This refers to your overarching approach to casino or sports betting, including your core objectives when wagering and the way in which you deal with bankroll management. So, you may combine multiple systems within a single betting strategy, while introducing variation across different sports or casino games.

Understanding the Importance of Betting Systems

Now that you understand betting systems and their relationship with betting strategies in a little more detail, the question that remains is why they’re so important from a punter’s perspective? In truth, there are various reasons why you should consider adopting one or more betting system, including the following:

Negate the House Edge

Whether you’re an avid casino gamer or sports bettor, the house will also retain an ‘edge’ on every single wager that you place. At the same time, sports betting outcomes in particular are unpredictable and determined by a number of constantly changing variables, so you have no deterministic or discernible advantage as an individual.

In casinos, the house edge varies from one game and iteration to another. For example, some blackjack iterations afford the house an edge of just 0.4%, while progressive jackpot slots can unlock an edge of more than 10%. When it comes to sportsbooks, operators also apply a so-called “vigorish” or commission of between 10% and 15% to every betting line that they set, ensuring at least some form of reliable profit.

You can at least partially negate this edge through the use of betting systems. After all, operators and sportsbooks use their own unique systems and factors such as implied probability to set odds in the first place, so researching the most effective and relevant systems on your own can establish a genuine competitive edge.

Manage and Set Optimal Stake Amounts

As we’ve touched on, betting systems can have different purposes, whether you want to minimise loss and retain as much of your starting bankroll as possible to pursue maximised returns. Of course, some systems have a mathematical foundation and help you to set the optimal stake amounts for individual bets, such as the ‘Kelly Criterion’.

The particular system takes into account a number of factors, including the implied probability of your bet winning (and losing) and the starting odds. It then tells you what percentage of your bankroll you should bet on a specific outcome, and you can use this to inform your stake amount and introduce some order and logic into your methodology.

There are numerous benefits to using betting systems to set stake amounts. Firstly, it enables you to manage your risk and minimise the likelihood of losing money, based on each individual outcome and betting line that you pick. Secondly, it allows you to increase your stake when backing short price favourites, as you look to safely pursue enhanced returns.

Seek Out Opportunities for Guaranteed Profits

We’ve already discussed matched betting, which is a system that leverages free bets and evenly priced markets to unlock guaranteed (albeit nominal) profits. For example, you could use a free bet to lay a back wager on Arsenal to defeat Manchester City in the Premier League, using a dedicated betting exchange that unlocks identical odds.

This system effectively covers all potential match outcomes (including the draw) while ensuring you only have to fund a single stake with your real money bankroll. So, as long as you manage your stake amount in accordance with your potential returns, you can secure a guaranteed profit and return on your wager.

Ultimately, there’s no such thing as a foolproof betting system, as each one is imperfect and unable to guarantee a return every time you place a wager. However, systems such as matched betting enable you access incremental and guaranteed profits from time to time, and it’s important to make the most of such advantages where you can.

Understanding Both Positive and Negative Progression Systems

In the next section of this guide, we’re going to explore some of the most popular betting systems in a little more detail. Before we do, however, we want to distinguish between positive and negative progression systems, as most of the examples that you’ll see across casino and sports betting will fall into one of these two categories. So, here’s a brief explanation of each one!

• – Negative Progression Systems: We’ll start with negative progression systems, which require you to increase your unit bet size after each loss. The most popular iteration of this approach is the Martingale System, which doubles the size of your stake every time you place a losing bet. This is a relatively high-risk approach, and one that’s focused on optimising the size of each individual win. It also requires quite a large and well-resourced bankroll.
• – Positive Progression Systems: As the name suggests, positive progression systems work in an inverse way to negative alternatives. More specifically, you’ll increase your unit bet with each win, with the Paroli and Reverse Labouchere systems enabling you to do in a conservative and measured way. This type of betting system is far more preoccupied with helping you to retain your starting bankroll and minimising losses, so it’s ideal for risk-averse bettors or those of you with smaller cash holdings.

Our Take on the Best and Most Widely Used Betting Systems

Now it’s time to explore some of the most popular betting systems a little more thoroughly, in a bid to determine their unique pros and cons. Most of the examples listed below can be used across both casino games and sports events, while there are other important factors that will influence your choice.

The Martingale System

We’ll start with the aforementioned Martingale System, which is a negative progression technique that requires you to double your unit bet with every loss. When you place a winning bet, you’ll return to your original stake amount, so the obvious objective here is to maximise the value of each individual win.

While this is commonly used during casino games such as roulette, it’s also popular among sports and football bettors. Regardless, it requires a hefty bankroll and unflinching appetite for risk, as you can wager significant amounts in a relatively short period of time while you await a winning bet.

For example, let’s say that your original unit bet value is £5. If your first wager loses, you’ll stake £10 on the next bet, before increasing this to £20 and then £40 after successive losses. If your £40 bet is successful at odds of 1.50, however, you’ll bank a return of £60 (inclusive of your stake amount), recovering your initial losses and earning a subsequent return.

The Fibonacci System

If you like the idea of negative progression but are uncomfortable with the rate at which the Martingale System forces you to increase your unit bet, the Fibonacci system may offer a viable alternative. This lets you raise your stake a little more gradually and responsibly, although it’s still focused on generating sizable wins and recovering losses.

With this system, you’ll formulate your next stake by adding the two previous bets together. When starting with the same unit bet of £5, for example, a loss will see you stake £10 next time. Another loss will see you bet £15 (£10 and £5 combined), while the following wager would be worth £25 in total (£15 and £10). Here’s a direct and visual example of how it compares with the Martingale approach.

While the difference here is initially small, you can see that by the fifth wager, your unit bet is doubled with the Martingale system. This places a significant strain on your bankroll and may compel you to wager outside your means, while it certainly encourages you to chase losses aggressively.

However, the Fibonacci system is far less effective at recovering losses. In the example above, this system will deliver a return of £60 if the fifth bet wins at odds of 1.50, delivering a nominal profit of £5 on your total outlay. However, the Martingale system will trigger a payout of £120 if your fifth bet wins at 1.50, delivering a cumulative profit of £45.

The Paroli System

The Paroli system is our first example of a positive progression strategy, and one that sees you increase your unit bet with every single win. In this case, you’ll double your wager until three consecutive wins have been recorded, at which point you’ll return to your original stake amount. The goal here is to safeguard your starting bankroll and only increase your unit bets when you’ve achieved a profit.

If your initial stake of £5 wins at odds of 1.50, you’ll recoup £7.50 and wager £10 next time. If this wins at the same price, you’ll add £15 to your total haul. You’ll then double your unit bet again to £20, and another triumph at the same odds will see you bank £30. At the end of this sequence, you’ll have staked £35 and banked a total of £52.50, creating a pure profit of £17.50.

What’s more, you’ll have achieved this profit by building on successive wins and capitalising on nominal margins. This system can lead to incremental returns over time, while minimising the extent of your losses during a typical gaming session. Once again, this betting system is utilised across both casino and sports wagering, although it’s generally preferred by novices or risk-averse bettors.

The Kelly Criterion

We’ll close with the previously mentioned Kelly Criterion, which is a mathematical betting system that is commonly applied to roulette betting. This is because roulette produces multiple in-game outcomes that carry variable odds, so the Kelly Criterion can help to determine each individual unit bet based on implied probability values. Here’s the formula used to express the Kelly Criterion and its key elements:

F = (BP – Q) / B

• F = Bet size (expressed as a percentage of your bankroll)
• B = Wager Odds (expressed in decimal format)
• P = The implied probability of your wager being successful
• Q = Relays the probability of your bet losing (expressed as 1 – P).

This system works best when using decimal odds, which simplify the process of calculating implied probability of winning and losing with a particular bet. You can also enter the live odds, which are a key consideration when setting stakes based on the balance between risk and your potential rewards. In addition to roulette, it’s also a widely used sports betting system.

The Kelly Criterion is arguably a standalone betting system, but it can be used alongside so-called “unit betting”. This requires you to establish a single unit bet value based on the size of your bankroll and typical wagering activity. You can then use the Kelly Criterion to determine whether you should stake a single unit bet or multiple of this value.