Betting on Politics – Why the US Election is a Huge Market
Posted by Harry Kane on Saturday, November 7, 2020
Americans will head to the polls in a little over 24 hours’ time, as the electorate stateside looks to elect the 46th President of the United States.
Currently, Democrat candidate Joe Biden holds an 8.6% lead at a national level, while he’s also thought to be ahead in key swing states such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Interestingly, we’ve seen a huge amount staked on the outcome of the US election here in the UK, which is one of the few countries in the world to allow betting in the political market. But what’s the size of the market in the UK, and is it a lucrative one for punters?
Betting on the US Election -What we Know so Far
At the most recent count, it’s estimated that £220 million (or $284 billion) have been wagered on the outcome of the US Presidential election on the Betfair exchange.
This is according to CNN, while Betfair have suggested that this yield is higher than the four most-bet-upon sporting events to have occurred combined so far in 2020.
The Paddy power brand has also confirmed that it has taken more than double the amount of money gambled on the 2016 election, when Donald Trump upset the odds by ousting the then-Democrat nominee and former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.
There’s also an interesting trend with regards to betting, as while Joe Biden remains the 2/5 odds-on favourite to prevail (the Democrat candidate also has an estimated 71% chance of winning), up to 80% of the wagers placed so far have backed the incumbent administration.
So, although Trump can now be backed at an average price of 15/8 and is thought to only hold a 34% chance of winning the election, his campaigning style and relatively attractive odds have encouraged millions to pour in and back another Republican triumph.
Clearly, punters are also being encouraged by the failure of the polls to predict the outcome of the 2016 election, with Hilary Clinton at one point through to have a 91% statistical chance of being elected.
Of course, this assertion overlooks the fact that the odds tightened considerably in the final six weeks prior to the election, with Trump actually ahead in many of the key swing states (which he subsequently went on to win) by the time that Americans headed to the polls.
In this respect, the size and consistency of Biden’s leads hints at a comfortable Democrat victory, but there’s no doubt that this election has captured the imagination of the British public like never before.
How to Bet and Make Money on the US Presidential Election
As we’ve already touched on, the UK is few one of the few countries to boast a strong betting market, with this particular avenue one of many that has been closed in the US.
Of course, this wasn’t always the case, as political betting markets actually thrived in North America prior to 1940. In fact, such markets often served as key indicators of potential political outcomes, but this became outdated amid the rise of polling and an increasingly stringent approach to regulating betting sectors stateside.
So, although recent legislative changes in the states and the emergence of sports betting experts such as DraftKings have shifted the landscape slightly of late, political wagering remains a largely prohibited practice in 2020.
If you’re a UK citizen and would to take advantage of the marketplace on these shores, however, what steps can you take to place bets and achieve a viable profit? Here are some steps to keep in mind:
1. Understand Odds and Value
As the market clearly shows, a bet on Biden offers the best chance of success in the 2020 election. However, the odds of 2/5 offer minimal value for punters, while the close nature of some swing states means that the wager boasts a relatively low value proposition.
However, Trump’s own odds of 15/8 can hardly be described as wildly enticing, particularly given his national deficit and the unexpectedly tight race that appears to be developing in so-called Republican strongholds such as Texas.
With these points in mind, it’s worth using odds calculators to determine the value and potential payout associated with your bet and stake, while understanding whether there’s any value to be had in wagering more on a Biden win as a way of increasing your returns.
If not, you may want to consider exploring a wider range of betting markets before making an informed decision.
2. Consider the Handicap Markets
There are various markets to consider when betting on the US Presidential election, particularly through operators such as Paddy Power.
One of the most intriguing is the handicap market, which can be applied to electoral college vote as a way of manipulating the available odds without necessarily compromising on your chances of winning.
With this type of wager, you can apply a variable handicap to your chosen candidate, before exploring how this impacts on the value proposition of specific wagers and your eventual returns.
For example, you can apply a -48.5 handicap to Joe Biden, meaning that the Democrat nominee would have to win the electoral college by 49 votes or more for the wager to come in.
This doesn’t seem to fanciful given his current lead, while this will instantly improve Biden’s odds to 6/5 and increase the size of your potential win considerably.
3. Think About Doubles Betting
If you study the build-up to the election in any kind of detail, you’ll see the current polling in key swing states nationwide.
This provides an additional opportunity to wager at improved odds, by taking on doubles bets that require you to predict the outcome of two rust belt states.
One particularly appealing bet is to back the Democrats to take Pennsylvania and Trump’s Republicans to steal Ohio. Currently, Biden retains a comfortable 5.6% lead in the former, while Trump has built considerable recent momentum in Ohio and now leads by an estimated 1.5%.
This outcome can be backed at a relatively competitive price of 6/5, so it’s well worth thinking about if you’re going to wager on the US election this year.