Assessing Blackjack – Positive vs. Negative Progression

Posted by Harry Kane on Monday, July 23, 2018

In many ways, it seems strange to think that online blackjack is not quite as popular as virtual slots or either similar table games like roulette. This is not to say that online blackjack is not popular, of course, with this discipline having seen activity levels increase by around 56% over the course of the last seven years.

Not only this, but some studies have suggested that you can expect to win an estimated 48% if the blackjack hands that you play, so the house edge is clearly minimal in relation to some other games.

Blackjack players remain vulnerable to a number of common mistakes and fallacies, however, and this can deter some from making it their casino game of choice. A number of these relate to the betting systems used during the course of gameplay, as while it’s unwise not to deploy any kind of strategy you must also make an informed decision that suits your philosophy and starting bankroll.

This often means choosing between positive and negative progression systems, which offer various benefits and a range of potential pitfalls to players. In this article, we’ll address and compare these two systems, while also measuring them against flat betting to determine which is suitable for you.

The Basics – Establishing a Betting Unit

Before we delve into the practicalities of negative and positive progression systems, it’s important to note that these strategies are all underpinned by a predetermined betting unit.

This essentially refers to the fixed value of every bet that you place, and it’s an important consideration that will ultimately influence the success or failure of your chosen system (while also determining how much you spend during a typical gaming session).

This value will either apply to the individual bet that you place or the amount that it changes with every hand, making it easier to manage your bankroll and playing strategy over time. If you’re betting unit is £5, for example, this will be the value of the wager that you place during the first game.

You’ll then either increase or decrease your stake by a viable multiplier with each hand that is drawn, depending on the precise type of system and strategy that you favour. If you utilise a flat betting system, of course, you’ll continue to wager £5 per hand across the duration of your session.

Introducing Negative Progression Systems

Now it’s time to drill down deeper into the nuances of negative and positive progression betting.

We’ll start with negative progression systems, which are arguably best categorised by the classic Martingale strategy. In simple terms, this type of strategy requires you to raise your stake with every loss, although the structure and the value of these increases will vary across specific systems.

If you adopt the Martingale system with a betting unit of £5, for example, you’d be required to double your stake if you lost the first hand. This means that you’d place a subsequent wager of £10, and continue this process until you achieve a win.

There are far more complex iterations of negative progression betting, with the Fibonacci strategy offering a relevant case in point. From a numerical perspective, this system starts with a sequence of 1,1,2,3,5,8,13, with each number relating to the multiplier that you apply to your betting unit with each hand.

Interestingly, this system is also infinite, as players are required to add the previous two numbers together to continue the sequence for as long as required. So, the next multiplier in the Fibonacci sequence would be 34, and using the example of the £5 betting unit this would create a stake equal to the value of £170.

The relative complexity and high-rolling nature of the Fibonacci system makes it largely exclusive to experienced players, but along with the Martingale strategy it underlines just how negative progression mechanisms work and impact on your bankroll.

The premise behind negative progression systems is that they’re designed to optimise the value of winning hands, theoretically increasing your chances of boosting your bankroll during a typical gaming session. If you deploy the Martingale system with a betting unit of £5 and play five hands before your first win, you’ll have staked £155 in total.

However, even with a traditional 3/2 payout rate, you’d rake in £200 by winning the fifth hand with an individual stake of £80. In contrast, deploying a flat betting system would see you win £12.50 on a wager of £5 after the fifth hand, but by this time you’d have already staked £25 in total.

While this highlights the benefits of progressive betting systems in general, it also underlines a significant flaw in this type of strategy. More specifically, negative progression strategies require frequent and regular wins if you’re to generate a return, as sustained losing streaks could incur huge losses if they continue indefinitely.

Given the opportunistic nature of the blackjack and the fact that losing streaks can continue for any conceivable length of time, negative progression betting increases the risk that you’ll blow through your entire bankroll without generating a single win.

Because of these factors, negative progression systems tend to be favoured by risk hungry players who boast relatively large bankrolls, as they’re capable of sustaining larger losses and longer losing sequences without running out of money.

They’re also more inclined to risk losing capital in the pursuit of considerable gains, and in this respect negative progression systems offer genuine value to blackjack players.

What About Positive Progression Systems?

Now we’ll move onto to positive progression systems, which as you’ve probably guessed are diametrically opposed to the negative strategies that we’ve just discussed.

Quite simply, these strategies demand that players increase their individual stake with every winning hand, and once again the only variable is the precise system that you use and the multipliers that you apply to your betting unit.

One of the best examples of positive progression is the Parlay system, which simply requires participants to leave their winnings on the table after playing a successful hand. So, having won a £40 wager on the previous hand, you’ll allow your winnings to ride and lay down £80 at the beginning of the next draw.

With this system, it’s wise to establish a desired win limit before you start, as once you reach this you can cash out and leave with your bounty.

In fairness, this is a relatively aggressive positive progression system, and one that you may not be comfortable as a new or inexperienced player. Fortunately, there are more risk averse and simplistic strategies of this type available, with the 1-3-2-6 system offering a relevant case in point.

In some respects, this is a fusion of both positive and negative progression systems, although there’s a significant emphasis on increasing your stake when you enjoy a successful hand. Using our preferred betting unit of £5 and assuming that you won four consecutive hands, you’d wager £5, £15, £10 and £30 respectively, while experiencing a loss anywhere within the sequence would see you return to your initial stake.

So, while four winning hands will deliver a return of £150 under the 1-3-2-6 strategy, the same winning streak would pay out just £50 when deploying a flat betting system.

However, a flat betting system would deliver a superior rate of return if you lost on the fourth hand, which in turn means that you need to carefully balance the risk-reward profiles of each strategy before making an informed decision before the two.

The 1-3-2-6 betting system is arguably more indicative of positive progression strategies, in that it strives to minimise risk and enables players to effectively manage smaller bankrolls. Of course, initial wins are minimal as you’ll be laying down your minimum stake at this time, but losing streaks are nowhere nearly as costly even when sustained over a concerted period of time.

With this in mind, positive progression systems certainly help to minimise losses, although the lack of significant progression means that even sustained winning streaks will not earn huge returns. However, it’s arguably ideal for cautious players or those with a minimal bankroll, and can certainly help you to play and earn incremental returns over a longer period of time.

How Important is the Betting System Тhat You Choose?

As we can see, positive and negative progression systems offer both pros and cons to blackjack players, depending on their philosophy, starting bankroll and level of experience.

When we compare these strategies to flat betting systems, it’s also evident that there are additional considerations that may influence your decisions. In general terms, flat betting systems offer some middle ground between negative and positive progression strategies, while ensuring that players do not out themselves at the mercy of winning or losing streaks.

Flat betting systems certainly suit the opportunistic nature of games such as blackjack, as they do not require you to scale your bet in anticipation of specific outcomes. Remember, all blackjack results are generated randomly, and it’s a common gamblers’ fallacy to suggest that a win is bound to follow a series of losses (or vice-versa).

So, while progressive betting systems are designed to deliver greater returns, they do require you to win a certain number of hands during each gaming session if they’re to prove successful.

Overall, no single type of betting system is better than another, with the effectiveness of each ultimately determined by variable factors such as your chosen betting unit and the individual hands that you’re drawn.

Sure, we can surmise that flat and positive progression systems are more suited to risk-averse players, while it’s also reasonable to suggest that negative progressive strategies offer greater value to high-rolling participants with a hefty bankroll. No single system alters the house edge that you will face as a player, however, nor will it increase your chances of winning at any given time.

Arguably, a more important consideration is the iteration of blackjack that you play, and the way in which you approach each hand. In terms of the former, various blackjack games offer alternative rules, some of which may increase your chances of winning.

Choosing iterations with as few decks as possible is a good place to start, as it’s estimated that the six or eight deck games available online have a house edge that is around 0.5% higher than those featuring a single deck of cards. Now, while few platforms offer single deck blackjack at present, there are double deck games that can increase your chances of winning from the outset.

Virtual casinos are also renowned for their lucrative promotions, and while many of these are aimed at slots in the digital age you may also find some that are beneficial to blackjack. While games typically pay out blackjacks at odds of 3/2 or 6/5, for example, operators may offer 2/1 payout during limited periods only.

It’s important that you strive to capitalise on this, as this can increase your winnings significantly and produce far greater returns over time.

On a similar note, you should also look out for games that allow you to double down after pair splitting, as this can reduce the operators edge by around 0.14% on average. This is a fairly common rule online, and it’s one that may enable you to win more frequently!

The Last Word

Ultimately, it’s important that you settle on a suitable and clearly defined betting system, whether this involves placing flat wagers or more progressive strategies.

It’s also crucial that you do not become too preoccupied with the precise betting system that you use, however, as while this is crucial to the successful management of risk and your bankroll it will have no bearing on your chances of winning individual hands.

Instead, try to focus on the blackjack iterations that you play and the rules that define them, as will impact on the prevailing house edge and could eventually help you to win more frequently over time.