A French Open Betting Guide for 2022 – Men’s Singles

Posted by Harry Kane on Friday, February 11, 2022

Is undeniable that a cloud hung over the first Grand Slam of the tennis season in Melbourne, with coronavirus restrictions and inconsistencies with regards to Novak Djokovic’s visa application preventing the nine-time champion from defending his title.

However, Djokovic is scheduled to appear at the French Open at Roland Garros in May, while the 2022 Australian Open winner Rafa Nadal will also look to reclaim his crown and win his 14th title in Paris.

Currently, Nadal leads the race as the most successful male player of all time, with 21 Grand Slam titles to his name. Djokovic is tied in second place with 20 major honours, and the 2022 French Open will see both men look to add to their hauls ahead of the grass and hard-court seasons.

Then and Now – A Brief History Ahead of the 2022 French Open

One of the four major Grand Slam titles on the tennis circuit, the French Open was founded in 1891 (131 years ago) and has seen 90 events since 1925. Interestingly, Rafa Nadal remains the most successful player in the history of the tournament, having amassed a number of records that may never be beaten since his debut and first French Open title in 2005.

No player can match Nadal’s haul of 13 French Open titles, for example, while his run of five consecutive wins between 2010 and 2014 is also a record during both the Open and pre-Open eras. Since his debut in 2005, Nadal also boasts an incredible Roland Garros career record of 105 wins and just three defeats. Robin Soderling was the first man to beat Nadal at the French Open in 2009, during a shock fourth-round triumph when the Swede triumphed in four sets.

Nadal’s subsequent two defeats in the 13 years since have been inflicted by Novak Djokovic, who beat the Spaniard in the quarters on his way to the final in 2015. Interestingly, Djokovic was then beaten by Stanislas “Stan” Wawrinka in four blistering sets, ending his dream of completing the ‘Career Slam’ at this stage (he achieved this feat the following year).

Djokovic also knocked Nadal out in 2021 in the semi-finals, going on to win his second French Open title and becoming only the third man to win all four singles’ majors twice and the first during the Open Era. However, neither Nadal or Djokovic are the most successful French Open players across single, doubles and mixed doubles action. This honour goes to the little-known Max Decugis during the pre-Open Era, who won a total of 28 titles between 1902 and 1920 including eight singles, 13 doubles and seven mixed-doubles crowns.

Who Are the 2022 French Open Favourites?

The 2022 iteration of the French Open will commence in Paris on Monday 22nd May, running until the final Sunday on June 5th. While the tournament may be a little over four weeks away, the leading sportsbooks have already >published their ante-post outright prices for punters to get their teeth into. So, here’s our breakdown of the key players and major ante-post favourites and a brief insight into why they’re being heavily backed to succeed in 2022.

#1. Rafa Nadal (SPA) – 7/5

We’ll start with the aforementioned Rafa Nadal, who remains a relatively short-priced, 7/5 favourite who enters the tournament on the back of winning his second Australian Open. This triumph not only saw the Spaniard move ahead of Djokovic and Roger Federer in the so-called “GOAT” race with 21 Grand Slam titles, but he also became the fourth man in history (and second in the Open Era after Djokovic) to complete the double ‘Career Slam’.

Nadal definitely overcame a myriad of physical challenges to prevail in Melbourne, with a longstanding and debilitating foot injury having ended his 2021 season early. What’s more, the 35-year-old also overcame a younger challenger in the form of US Open champion Daniil Medvedev in a marathon, five-set finale.

Incredibly, Nadal also came back from two sets and three break points down to prevail, completing such a comeback for just the sixth time in any Grand Slam final during the Open Era. This match alone highlights Nadal’s immense mental strength and indefatigable spirit, which has seen the Spaniard compete aggressively with Federer and Djokovic despite suffering a number of serious knee and foot injuries since his 20s.

His record at Roland Garros is also difficult to ignore, while Nadal’s superb use of top-spin and left-handed forehand (aligned with his incredibly efficient net game) are tailormade for clay court matches. Remember, clay naturally takes place off the ball, so the addition of topspin kicks the Spaniard’s shots upwards and forces his opponents into a baseline war of attrition.

Nadal is always more likely to come out on top in such a battle, particularly as his opponent is forced back into a defensive mindset and potentially forced to play a game that doesn’t come naturally to them. So, he’ll arrive in Paris as a deserved favourite, and will take some stopping in the quest for a 14th French Open title and 22nd major overall.

#2. Novak Djokovic (SER) – 11/4

Djokovic is the clear second favourite for the 2022 French Open, with an average price of 11/4 across the UK’s leading sportsbooks. All eyes will definitely be on the Serb as he arrives at Roland Garros, with Djokovic primed to make his first Grand Slam appearance since September 2021 (when he was surprisingly defeated in straight sets by Medvedev and denied his 21st major honour).

There’s no doubt that his Australian Open controversy has disrupted Djokovic both mentally and physically, however, having been denied entry into the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Open due to the United States’ rule forbidding unvaccinated travellers from entering North America. This meant that the Serb was unable to play competitively in March, while his first clay court appearance at the 2022 Monte Carlo Masters in April ended in a second-round defeat to the 27th ranked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in three sets.

Having received a bye in the first round, this loss was Djokovic’s first opening match loss since the 2018 Barcelona Open, although he has subsequently managed to find some form by reaching the final of the Serbian Open (where he’ll compete against Karen Khachanov).

Still, Djokovic is likely to enter the 2022 French Open a little undercooked and lacking in meaningful match action, in sharp contrast to the ebullient Rafa Nadal. He’ll also have to overcome the Spaniard on his favourite surface, while simultaneously battling Nadal’s incredible heritage in the tournament and on the iconic Court Philippe Chatrier at Roland Garros in particular.

The feeling is that Djokovic will have to be on his A-game to defeat Nadal and win the 126th edition of the French Open, especially if Nadal is able to maintain his fitness through the upcoming Madrid Masters (which starts on April 26th) and the momentum he has built through 2022 so far.

#3. Carlos Alcaraz (SPA) – 13/5

Next up is a slightly unfamiliar name, as while Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz may be ranked 11th in the world, the 18-year-old has only recently mounted an ascent on the top 20 in the last six months or so. Alcaraz first broke into the world’s top 100 in May 2021, after he reached the third round at the French Open and becoming the youngest player since Djokovic in 2005 to win his debut match at Roland Garros.

He subsequently reached his maiden ATP Tour final at the 2021 Croatia Open in July, where he also won his first title. He achieved another breakthrough at the US Open in the autumn, reaching the quarter-finals and becoming the youngest player to beat a top-three ranked player (Stefanos Tsitsipas) at Flushing Meadows since the inceptions of the ATP rankings in 1973.

Incredibly, he also became the youngest ever player to reach the quarterfinals of any major men’s singles tournament since Michael Change at the 1989 French Open, and youngest to do so at the US Open at any point during the Open Era. He has continued his incredible ascent through 2022 so far, winning his inaugural ATP 500 and Masters 1000 titles at the Rio Open and Miami Open respectively. Alcaraz subsequently crashed into the world’s top 20, before entering the world’s top 10 after reaching the semi-finals at the prestigious Barcelona Open.

He’s the ninth-youngest player in history to break into the ATP top 10, and the youngest since his compatriot Rafa Nadal back in 2005. Alcaraz will have turned 19 by the start of the 2022 French Open, and few players will enter the tournament in such brilliant form. Certainly, this generational talent has been one of the most consistent players in 2022 so far, and he’s widely tipped to compete for his maiden Grand Slam title in Paris.

Our 3 French Open 2022 Betting Tips

With a clear understanding of the live odds and favourites, the question that remains is what tips and hints can help you to formulate a viable betting strategy? We’ve outlined a few suggestions below, so that you can hopefully make informed decisions and get the most out of the 2022 French Open wagers!

#1. Favour Baseline Players Over Attacking, Serve-and-Volley Practitioners

As we’ve already touched on, clay court action can be a genuine war of attrition, thanks to the slow nature of the courts and reliance on top spin and accuracy rather than power and aggression. In simple terms, the French Open favours baseline players with a strong defence and relentless physicality over more attacking ball strikers who may rely on a serve-volley game and prefer to keep rallies short.

Of course, we’ve seen exceptions to this rule through the years, with power hitters like Stan Wawrinka prevailing in 2015 and dominating Novak Djokovic in that year’s final. However, Wawrinka was also an incredible hitter from the baseline, and one who is known to use top-spin to his advantages when playing on clay.

Of course, favourite and prototype clay court player Nadal also boasts an excellent and efficient net game, which adds another string to his bow and partially explains his dominance through the years. However, the general rule outlining the dominance of baseliners over aggressive, serve and volleyers like Roger Federer is a valid one, and should inform your outright wagers ahead of the 2022 French Open.

2. Avoid Players with Injury Worries When Outright Betting

Because of the attritional and baseline-dominated nature of French Open matches, stamina and athleticism are two key attributes for successful players. This also helps to explain the relative success of Nadal and Djokovic at Roland Garros, especially when compared to ‘GOAT’ rival and grass court legend Roger Federer.

It also helps to explain why younger and fitter players like Alcaraz often hold an advantage at Grand Slams like the French Open, as they often boast the physical fitness and conditioning to compete in extended rallies and four or five-set contests.

Not only will this encourage you to avoid betting on players who typically like to keep points short (such as Federer and huge servers like John Isner and Marin Cilic), but you should also prioritise selections that are in peak physical condition and largely free from injury when the event starts.

So, it’s worth monitoring the events in the build-up to the tournament, keeping a particular eye on injury-prone players (including favourite Nadal). Because of this, you should also avoid placing outright bets too early in anticipation of the French Open, as you look to appraise the condition of the competitors prior to the start.

3. Consider In-Play Betting

Given the extensive nature of French Open matches, you may also want to consider the benefits of in-play betting at the tournament. You’ll certainly have time to place relatively informed live bets, for example, while accessing a potentially huge range of real-time betting markets across the board.

With individual match betting, for example, you can see how the opening games or set plays out before backing a potential winner. Sure, the odds may shorten slightly during this time, but it enables you to make a more informed choice when attempting to pick between two evenly-matched players.

With this type of betting, you can also use historical trends and data to your advantage. For example, tie-breaks are a relative rarity at the French Open, with Nadal having claimed 22 tiebreaks in total ahead of the 2020 French Open, compared with US Open, 40 at the Australian Open and 39 at Wimbledon. Djokovic boasts similar figures, having completed 27 tiebreaks at Roland Garros and a staggering 54 at Wimbledon during the same period.

So, if you want to bet on the winner of a set and a player achieves a break towards the end of the contest, you can safely wager on him emerging victorious. This is at least true from a statistical perspective, although you’ll have to factor in other elements such as the two competing players and the overall state (and stage) of the match.